Crimson Tide Football and Other Alabama Sports Musings

Sugar Bowl--CFP Round 1: Alabama vs. Clemson Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans Jan. 1, 2018 7:45 p.m. Central Why Fans Should Expect Another Close Game When the Clemson Tigers pad their way toward South Louisiana, there will be a confidence in their step. Why Not? They're the reigning national champs, just came off a 38-3 throttling of Miami to win the ACC, have been named number one by a CFP committee that has more statisticians and analysts at their disposal than Vegas, have lost only a couple of games in the past 29 and last time they faced the Tide they came from behind to win against a defense loaded with future NFL stars. They deserve to walk with confidence. Across the field  the Alabama Red Elephants will be equally confident in their ability to stomp onto the field and take this next step toward a fifth national championship in nine years. Their confident approach comes from the same one-loss season, the leading Vegas Power Ratings (Bama 1 and Clemson 2) i

Last week my analysis showed that the Tide wasn't likely to beat Auburn on the road, or better said, it felt like a toss-up to be decided by a fumble or dropped pass or ill-timed holding call. And that is still a good possibility. The scariest weaknesses were Minkah Fitzpatrick being slowed, the left guard hurt and out, and a huge hole at Mike linebacker. I felt that if Dylan Moses could somehow be ready, if Minkah could heal and if JC Hassenaur would be ready to replace Pierschbacher the Tide could win. Do last Saturday (and I know it was an FCS team), JC was Offensive lineman of the SEC, Dylan had 11 tackles and an INT and was flying all over the place and impacting almost every play, and Minkah has been practicing and claims to be healthy. With those pieces falling into place, I have to believe the Tide is slightly better. I'd say about 6-8 points better on any given day. On the road, drop a couple or three of those points. Final score: Bama 32 - Auburn 27

With Thanksgiving ahead and being in a cabin next week without the Internet, I thought I would combine Mercer and Auburn analysis and post today. I'm sitting across from Bryant Denny stadium right now and as I sit down to write, I realize that my three hours of research are at home in Mississippi.....big oops. So this blog will be shorter and easier to read, without all the details and stats. But I had finished the analysis so I know my predicted outcome. As for Mercer, they are 5-5 with two wins over ranked FCS teams. They were down by only a touchdown in the fourth quarter against Auburn before losing 24-10. For context, Auburn was without Kerryon Johnson and had four fumbles and a pass interception. MErcer has only been back in football for about four years after dropping it during WWII, so they are taking on big names for money and to get their name out onto a national stage. Their QB is decent and they have a good receiver and RB. I do expect them to move the ball a couple o

Alabama vs. Mississippi State November 11, 2017 6 p.m. Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, Mississippi Tide will limp into Starkville, but it will not be an excuse When the Crimson Tide rolls down that short 90-mile drive to Starkville to challenge the 7-2, #16 in CFP Mississippi State Bulldogs, it will be without several key linebackers, so any analysis of this game may as well address that right up front. Bama escaped from the opener against Florida State with a win, but lost key linebackers Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis for the season. Against LSU last weekend, the toll was greater as the Tide lost two more linebackers and two other defensive players were dinged up. Minkah Fitzpatrick played sparingly due to a hamstring injury suffered in the first few plays, though he is said to be practicing after one day off. We'll see if he loses that half a step that has put him perhaps at the top of the heap for the Bama defense. The most costly setback last weekend was the

Alabama vs. LSU Football Saturday, November 7, 2017 Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa 7:00 central A Long Historic Rivalry with a Recent History of Close Games While Bama fans wouldn’t likely define this game as an Alabama rivalry (at least not above Tennessee or Auburn), the Alabama-LSU series is historic, starting in 1895 with a 12-6 LSU win in Baton Rouge. Since then the game has been played in six locations: Baton Rouge, Mobile, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, New Orleans and Montgomery. The game became an annual affair in 1964. One interesting footnote: for the past fifteen seasons the game has had some bearing on the national championship on average about every other year. It would be easy enough to dismiss the Bama-LSU game as just another wannabe SEC top tier team coming to Tuscaloosa without much hope of taking home a W. After all, this is number one Bama, right? And isn’t this the LSU team that lost to Troy a few games back? And was soundly defeated by Mi