National Championship a slugfest, not a dogfight

After reviewing the two seasons for Alabama and Georgia,  I find the secret to the likely winner is not in the stats. So this blog will be short and  sweet. These teams are built the same way, to win by running the ball and stopping the run on D.

While the tandem of RBs at Georgia hold the all-time total yard record for a tandem, they simply do not outclass the Alabama tandem of Damien and Bo when you add the Jalen runs and the special package that has become important over the second half of the season with Jacobs and Najee to bring in a change of pace and some great short pass options.

The teams are more or less evenly matched in red zone O and D, total O (Bama gains about 20 yards more a game, mostly with the pass), total D, Rushing D (Bama allows about 30 yards fewer, so one small difference that matters), and many other stats that don't deliver much insight about who is perhaps able to gain an advantage. The only differences that seem to have a chance to matter statistically to me are the INTs that Bama makes over others, and the fact that Jalen has thrown only one INT. The takeaway difference could easily go to Bama. Of course, if this is not a typical game and the Dogs win the turnover battle that could slide this close game their way.

If I had to scrape the bottom of the stat bucket for differences, I'd say that punting of Bama with virtually no returns (four for 1.25 yards each) would be a small factor since Georgia has a great returner. I'd also say that as good as Fromm has been, he is still a freshman and Jalen Hurts is now a veteran of two seasons and three playoff games. Advantage Bama. And with the Tide pass rushers now healthier, a pocket passer will lose some of his advantage over the Bama we saw in November.

I'll forego the statistical analysis this time and ask this. What kinds of teams beat a Saban team? Think about a gunslinger from Texas A&M, a spread offense from Auburn, gunslingers with a spread from Oklahoma and Ohio State, and a pass happy Utah with receivers all over the field.





Bottom line for me, this is not the kind of team that beats Bama, despite how good they are.

Bama wins by 3-6 in a  low scoring game.