Alabama Crimson Tide will need to rise when the LSU Tigers come prowling in the night

Alabama vs. LSU Football

Saturday, November 7, 2017

Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa

7:00 central

A Long Historic Rivalry with a Recent History of Close Games

While Bama fans wouldn’t likely define this game as an Alabama rivalry (at least not above Tennessee or Auburn), the Alabama-LSU series is historic, starting in 1895 with a 12-6 LSU win in Baton Rouge. Since then the game has been played in six locations: Baton Rouge, Mobile, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, New Orleans and Montgomery. The game became an annual affair in 1964.

One interesting footnote: for the past fifteen seasons the game has had some bearing on the national championship on average about every other year.

It would be easy enough to dismiss the Bama-LSU game as just another wannabe SEC top tier team coming to Tuscaloosa without much hope of taking home a W. After all, this is number one Bama, right? And isn’t this the LSU team that lost to Troy a few games back? And was soundly defeated by Mississippi State by 30?

But let’s take closer look before we jump on the Bama Wins Easy Train. First, Troy has proven to be a decent team at 6-2 with two SEC wins and Mississippi State also sports a 6-2 record with a couple of nice wins. No, I’m not trying to set up a phony scenario to make the Tide look better if they win. But there’s a reason they actually play the games. And I watched TCU go down this weekend and saw the Penn State loss coming when they were two scores ahead. The body language was so very clear even on TV that OSU saw themselves winning and Penn State saw themselves powerless and desperate. I saw it and said it at the time as I watched. The power of positive thinking isn’t just the title of a somewhat controversial 1952 book—it’s alive and well in strapping young men armed with more or less the same strength and technique, perhaps similar belief, and if lucky some kind of leadership—and the somewhat legislated parity created by the NCAA regulations on scholarships, the number of coaches, practice days, etc. Any team, any time-- within reason of course--has a fighting chance to pull off a win against those who recruit in the same ranges of talent.

And consider this. Four of the past ten games between Bama and the Tigers went to overtime (’05, ’08, ’11, ’14)—with the road team winning all four.

Overall, Bama leads the series at 51-25-5. The historic rematch of 2011 made one of the most interesting seasons in college football, when Bama lost the regular season game 9-6 in OT, only to come back in a very rare inter-conference rematch and shut down LSU in the Sugar Bowl 21-0 for a national championship.

The matchup is one of national powers loaded with talent

If you look at the two programs and their place in modern college football history, you see a lot of parity. Both are in the top 13 schools in placing players in the NFL draft (Bama at 8^th with 343 and LSU at 13^th with 328). And that trend remains strong today. So both teams recruit very well.

Bama is fifth in total weeks at number one in the AP poll, with 768. LSU is 10^th with 595. Bama is number one in bowl appearances with 66, while LSU is 9^th with 48. Bama is 3^rd in weeks in the AP number 1 slot with 98, while LSU is 12^th with 30 weeks there. So, again, both programs are national powers, generally speaking, and attract young men with confidence in their abilities and a winning attitude.

In the past few years, while Bama has averaged more or less number one in recruiting, LSU has averaged in the top five at around number 4 average in recent years. Compare that the Georgia that averaged number 7 during this time period.

 Why Bama fans should feel confident

Let’s start with the obvious:

            A number one ranking.

            8-0 record with no real challenges so far.

            And a +200 combined scoring margin in SEC wins.

And we can add to that a returning QB who led his team to within a couple of seconds of a national title as a freshman. The running back group is perhaps the deepest one could ever imagine. There are no glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball and virtually every position is two or three deep, some deeper.

 But is this team really that good and can they manhandle LSU?

It appears the Alabama squad could be that good, based on the margin of victory average and the ease with which they have controlled most games. But some questions do linger regarding how the team might fair against an Auburn, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State or even LSU. For example, while Bama has held five teams under 10 points, those five all have three or fewer wins so they just aren’t that good anyway.

Consider this…despite being 8-0 and without a scare, the opponents faced just aren’t the strongest the Tide has played in recent years. Four of the eight have only three wins and one has only two, so those five together are 14-25. Not very strong. Among the three with winning records, only one has six wins (Colorado State 6-2). TAMU and Fresno have five each. Is it Bama’s fault that teams that often are good are underperforming, such as Tennessee and Florida State? Of course not, but it does leave questions unanswered. It’s not like last year when Bama trounced Southern Cal only to see them emerge as the season progressed and finish in the top five. One mild positive is that the Bama strength of schedule is still number 34 nationally, so not too bad. And if you reversed the losses to Bama, the combined record of the opponents would be positive at  22-17.

On top of those unanswered issues for Alabama is the simple fact that LSU is 6-2 and has won five of the last six with only a three-point loss in that six game stretch to Troy, who is a respectable 5-2.

 Almost all of the stats favor Bama

Although I can make a case that LSU could play Bama tough, an honest quick run through some key indicators of team performance seem to lean Bama’s way in virtually every case. Bama scores on average 43 points to LSU’s 27. The Bama O generates 500 yards per game, to an average of 418 for the Tigers. Each team passes for 201, but Bama has an edge in the rushing game of 299 (NCAA 7^th)  to 216, or just over 80 yards per game more…certainly enough to be the difference of 7-10 points in a close game without critical turnovers.

Bama has rushed for 28 touchdowns and LSU has yielded 12 TDs on the ground. Bama also rushes for an average of 6.3 yards per carry to the LSU 5.1 yard average. That tends to make for shorter third down conversions and explains why Bama has a better conversion average.

Bama is a bit better in third down conversions at 43% to 36%. Bama has an edge in penalties with 12 fewer, but it’s hard to predict that as a factor in any game.

Bama has a slight edge in field goals, making 14 of 19 to LSU’s 10 of 14. Both are perfect on extra points (42 straight for Bama, 27 of 27 for LSU).

In the Red Zone, again it feels like a lean toward the Tide, which is 10^th nationally with 38 of 42 scores in the red zone (91%). LSU has only reached the red zone 31 times and scored 24 times (78%).

LSU will rely on the great tandem of Darrel Williams and the formidable Guice (5’11”, 212) who averages 5.7 yards a carry and has six TDs. Unfortunately for the Tide, he performs a yard or two better per carry in away games and SEC games. The good news for Bama fans is that QB Etling will not beat them with his legs.

On the defense, we find the Tide ranking number one nationally in yielding only 236 total yards a game, while LSU ranks a very respectable 25 by giving up a stingy 319 yards. Bama gives up 4 yards per play to 5 for the Tigers. Bama has allowed only 8 offense TDS compared to 17. And Bama has 15 takeaways (4 fumble recoveries and 11 INTs) to 9 for LSU (2 and 7).

One interesting stat that will be something to watch. Both teams keep the passing efficiency of the opponent low. Bama holding teams to 99.5 (NCAA 7^th) and LSU to 104 (NCAA 11^th). This could force both teams to rely  more on the ground game, which has to favor Bama.

LSU has two lock-down corners in Jackson and Tolliver, along with a good DE in Sr. #18 Christian LaCoutrie, 6’5” and 301 with five sacks. LSU soph. linebacker Devin White is fun to watch at 6’1”, 255. He has 80 tackles, including five games with 10+ tackles.

On the positive side for the Tide, LSU has little depth in the secondary. When Bama lines up four receivers they can all get open and all have speed. Jacobs may be injured so perhaps not a factor out of the backfield, but he could be a fifth weapon if he gets out of the boot. Or the tight end could be used selectively to spread that secondary thin.

My keys to the game

Bama will be slowed some in its passing game and have several three and outs, but over the course of the game will have enough explosive plays on the ground and one or two in the air to reach the red zone where LSU has been a bit weaker and allowed 22 of 25 red zone scores (88%) to Bama’s 11 (54%). LSU has allowed 11 rushing TDs to Bama’s 2. And LSU will struggle in the passing game against the Tide so its scoring will be severely challenged.

Bama gives up two yards per carry less yardage. That will matter. Remember Fournette being shut down?

In the red zone Bama’s offense will shine as usual with its 91% average. (By the way, Georgia is 29 of 29 for 100%--wont that be fun if the Tide gets to Atlanta? And Auburn is 33 of 36!)

Depth will matter. And the Tide’s superior run defense that gives up on 66 yards will force LSU into its discomfort zone to pass more, causing its third down percentage to be abysmal. Bama controls time of possession and makes at least 6-8 more first downs.

Final Score:
Bama 33/LSU 10

Previous Predictions

Bama 52- Fresno 10    Actual 41-10 I'm happy with this projection.
Bama 42-Col. State 10    Actual 41-23 Slight underestimation of passing game
Bama 33-Vandy 7    Actual 59-0 Who'd a thunk it
Bama 42-Ole Miss 13    Actual 66-3 Wow. And I was worried about a 30-point spread
Bama 40-TAMU 14    Actual 27-19 Biggest miss, though I hinted it could be closer. Didn't bet either.
Bama 48-Ark. 7    Actual 41-9 Pretty damn good. Did bet and won.

Bama 31-Florida State 24    Actual: 24-7 Hmm, just okay. Glad I didn't bet.
Bama 47-Tennessee 7    Actual 45-7 DAMN! Easy money.