Tide hosts Mercer, but all eyes are on Auburn Tigers
With Thanksgiving ahead and being in a cabin next week without the Internet, I thought I would combine Mercer and Auburn analysis and post today. I'm sitting across from Bryant Denny stadium right now and as I sit down to write, I realize that my three hours of research are at home in Mississippi.....big oops. So this blog will be shorter and easier to read, without all the details and stats. But I had finished the analysis so I know my predicted outcome.
As for Mercer, they are 5-5 with two wins over ranked FCS teams. They were down by only a touchdown in the fourth quarter against Auburn before losing 24-10. For context, Auburn was without Kerryon Johnson and had four fumbles and a pass interception. MErcer has only been back in football for about four years after dropping it during WWII, so they are taking on big names for money and to get their name out onto a national stage. Their QB is decent and they have a good receiver and RB. I do expect them to move the ball a couple of times on drives early and again late when we have the third team playing. With so many injuries at Bama, expect to see starters rotating out early and often.
Prediction: Alabama 43-Mercer 6.
Now on to Auburn....
Let me say this up front....after years writing on Bama football for Al.com and now for this blog, this is the first time that I cannot say that I feel like Bama will win. I'm not saying they will lose, but I'm saying my analysis usually gives the edge to the home team when all else is even or close. So I'll lay out my thoughts briefly and without heavy stats.
Why this could be a toss up
Both teams gain the same yardage (Bama 474/AU 468). Both run well over 200 yards a game (Bama 271/AU 232) and pass over 200 (Bama 203/AU 237). Bama scores 40, Auburn 37. A virtual toss-up when you consider a missed field goal here and a dropped pass there.
Both are top ten in total D. Bama is number one in NCAA at 252 yards given up and Auburn yields only 300. Bama has an edge in run defense at 85 given up to Auburn's 118. What if everything else cancels out and that 30 yards and a field goal made is the difference in the game? It could happen....
Bama is tops in the nation and has an edge in points yielded of 11 to Auburn's 17. Both have 30 sacks. Bama has 16 takeaways and Auburn has 14 (Bama heavier in INTs at 12 to 4, but AU strips the ball more at 10 to Bama's 4.)
In my initial analysis, it seemed Bama could win by about 3 on a neutral field before injuries. Playing at Auburn with a depleted lineup it seemed that it could easily tilt the other way. Ultimately, it became almost a push for me. So here's where I landed....
Why Auburn could win
1. Bama was exposed last weekend against Mississippi State in the second level of the defense. The middle linebacker Holcombe, despite having loads of experience and doing an admirable job as called on all year is simply not Shaun Dion Hamilton. he was beat often. On one play a pulling tackle leveled him flat and allowed a run right over him to the goal line. Then the MSU QB gave him a little wiggle on a run down the line to the right and Holcombe whiffed and grabbed air as the QB danced in for a score at a critical time. Then at the end Holcombe allowed a second hail Mary attempt on the first ever pass interference call on a hail Mary that I can remember.
2. Bama is simply not the same team with Minkah Fitzpatrick slowed by a hamstring pull. He continued non-contact this week in practice. Hopefully he will be close to healed in another week, but if not, look for Auburn to exploit that coverage weakness. Remember how Clemson scorched the Tide without Eddie Jackson?
3. Tony Brown seems a bit wounded and was slowed in practice....more damage to the pass coverage.
4. The loss of a three-year starter at left guard in Pierschbacher will be damaging unless J.C. Hassenauer can step up. He did okay in relief but there was a drop-off.
5. Auburn proved against Georgia that they can run on a stout defense.
6. The crowd will be a factor, and Bama has been known to suffer from OL movement under duress. It could be a close game where the fans could be a factor.
7. In addition to losing four linebackers, Anfernee Jennings and Jamey Mosley are both reported to be a bit dinged up this week, so we could be even more thinned out at linebacker than we know.
8. DL five-start recruit Labryan Ray broke his foot this week, so the middle of the defensive Line will be thinner that ever. While he is a freshman, he was the number one nationally rated DE in the nation and the top player in the state last year. He will be missed.
9. Auburn has the most balanced offense Bama has seen and can make evplosive plays on the ground and in the air, especially at home.
10. Auburn is playing for a shot at an SEC and national title, so the motivation will be there.
Why Bama could win
1. As talented as Auburn may be, Bama still has an ever-so-slight edge in talent even with the injuries. If the the young players like Dylan Moses use these two weeks since MSU to get ready, the Tide could be slightly better overall. There is a slight chance that Christian Miller could be back from his so-called season-ending injury to play some....but not confirmed yet. If so that would matter.
2. Jalen Hurts is the better QB, and if allowed to pass downfield early and often, Bama can score in the high 30s and beat an Auburn team in the low to mid-30s.
3. As good as Kerryon may be, if Bama used any one of Damien, Bo or Jacobs as much as AU uses Kerryon, I believe they would be the leading RB in the conference. As a group and with Jalen included, Bama still outgains the Tigers.
4. Bama has the best head coach.
5. J.C. Hassenauer was an Under Armour All-America high schooler and the number one rated center coming out of high school. He is now a senior and with two weeks to prepare to replace Pierschbacher, he can be ready and the Alabama line could be a positive factor.
6. Football experts believe that teams cannot play at their peak every game. Auburn may have given its best performance against Georgia and repeating that against a second top-ranked team is simply a challenge few teams can achieve. No two games are the same and this one will not go like Georgia, so the mental monkey bars for Auburn could be slippery to try it twice in three weeks.
My projection: Someone wins by one. After I see who plays tomorrow and seems at full speed, I may change my prediction.....and pick a winner.
As for Mercer, they are 5-5 with two wins over ranked FCS teams. They were down by only a touchdown in the fourth quarter against Auburn before losing 24-10. For context, Auburn was without Kerryon Johnson and had four fumbles and a pass interception. MErcer has only been back in football for about four years after dropping it during WWII, so they are taking on big names for money and to get their name out onto a national stage. Their QB is decent and they have a good receiver and RB. I do expect them to move the ball a couple of times on drives early and again late when we have the third team playing. With so many injuries at Bama, expect to see starters rotating out early and often.
Prediction: Alabama 43-Mercer 6.
Now on to Auburn....
Let me say this up front....after years writing on Bama football for Al.com and now for this blog, this is the first time that I cannot say that I feel like Bama will win. I'm not saying they will lose, but I'm saying my analysis usually gives the edge to the home team when all else is even or close. So I'll lay out my thoughts briefly and without heavy stats.
Why this could be a toss up
Both teams gain the same yardage (Bama 474/AU 468). Both run well over 200 yards a game (Bama 271/AU 232) and pass over 200 (Bama 203/AU 237). Bama scores 40, Auburn 37. A virtual toss-up when you consider a missed field goal here and a dropped pass there.
Both are top ten in total D. Bama is number one in NCAA at 252 yards given up and Auburn yields only 300. Bama has an edge in run defense at 85 given up to Auburn's 118. What if everything else cancels out and that 30 yards and a field goal made is the difference in the game? It could happen....
Bama is tops in the nation and has an edge in points yielded of 11 to Auburn's 17. Both have 30 sacks. Bama has 16 takeaways and Auburn has 14 (Bama heavier in INTs at 12 to 4, but AU strips the ball more at 10 to Bama's 4.)
In my initial analysis, it seemed Bama could win by about 3 on a neutral field before injuries. Playing at Auburn with a depleted lineup it seemed that it could easily tilt the other way. Ultimately, it became almost a push for me. So here's where I landed....
Why Auburn could win
1. Bama was exposed last weekend against Mississippi State in the second level of the defense. The middle linebacker Holcombe, despite having loads of experience and doing an admirable job as called on all year is simply not Shaun Dion Hamilton. he was beat often. On one play a pulling tackle leveled him flat and allowed a run right over him to the goal line. Then the MSU QB gave him a little wiggle on a run down the line to the right and Holcombe whiffed and grabbed air as the QB danced in for a score at a critical time. Then at the end Holcombe allowed a second hail Mary attempt on the first ever pass interference call on a hail Mary that I can remember.
2. Bama is simply not the same team with Minkah Fitzpatrick slowed by a hamstring pull. He continued non-contact this week in practice. Hopefully he will be close to healed in another week, but if not, look for Auburn to exploit that coverage weakness. Remember how Clemson scorched the Tide without Eddie Jackson?
3. Tony Brown seems a bit wounded and was slowed in practice....more damage to the pass coverage.
4. The loss of a three-year starter at left guard in Pierschbacher will be damaging unless J.C. Hassenauer can step up. He did okay in relief but there was a drop-off.
5. Auburn proved against Georgia that they can run on a stout defense.
6. The crowd will be a factor, and Bama has been known to suffer from OL movement under duress. It could be a close game where the fans could be a factor.
7. In addition to losing four linebackers, Anfernee Jennings and Jamey Mosley are both reported to be a bit dinged up this week, so we could be even more thinned out at linebacker than we know.
8. DL five-start recruit Labryan Ray broke his foot this week, so the middle of the defensive Line will be thinner that ever. While he is a freshman, he was the number one nationally rated DE in the nation and the top player in the state last year. He will be missed.
9. Auburn has the most balanced offense Bama has seen and can make evplosive plays on the ground and in the air, especially at home.
10. Auburn is playing for a shot at an SEC and national title, so the motivation will be there.
Why Bama could win
1. As talented as Auburn may be, Bama still has an ever-so-slight edge in talent even with the injuries. If the the young players like Dylan Moses use these two weeks since MSU to get ready, the Tide could be slightly better overall. There is a slight chance that Christian Miller could be back from his so-called season-ending injury to play some....but not confirmed yet. If so that would matter.
2. Jalen Hurts is the better QB, and if allowed to pass downfield early and often, Bama can score in the high 30s and beat an Auburn team in the low to mid-30s.
3. As good as Kerryon may be, if Bama used any one of Damien, Bo or Jacobs as much as AU uses Kerryon, I believe they would be the leading RB in the conference. As a group and with Jalen included, Bama still outgains the Tigers.
4. Bama has the best head coach.
5. J.C. Hassenauer was an Under Armour All-America high schooler and the number one rated center coming out of high school. He is now a senior and with two weeks to prepare to replace Pierschbacher, he can be ready and the Alabama line could be a positive factor.
6. Football experts believe that teams cannot play at their peak every game. Auburn may have given its best performance against Georgia and repeating that against a second top-ranked team is simply a challenge few teams can achieve. No two games are the same and this one will not go like Georgia, so the mental monkey bars for Auburn could be slippery to try it twice in three weeks.
My projection: Someone wins by one. After I see who plays tomorrow and seems at full speed, I may change my prediction.....and pick a winner.
The biggest thing we have going for us --and you mentioned it -- Auburn played their BEST game of the year. One of their pundits said it was a perfect game. You can't do that every week. I doubt they can do it again. Second best thing for us in this game --Jalen Hurts. When he takes over nothing can stop him.
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