Alabama Crimson Tide knows the Mississippi State Bulldogs can bite this year

Alabama vs. Mississippi State
November 11, 2017
6 p.m.
Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, Mississippi

Tide will limp into Starkville, but it will not be an excuse

When the Crimson Tide rolls down that short 90-mile drive to Starkville to challenge the 7-2, #16 in CFP Mississippi State Bulldogs, it will be without several key linebackers, so any analysis of this game may as well address that right up front. Bama escaped from the opener against Florida State with a win, but lost key linebackers Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis for the season. Against LSU last weekend, the toll was greater as the Tide lost two more linebackers and two other defensive players were dinged up. Minkah Fitzpatrick played sparingly due to a hamstring injury suffered in the first few plays, though he is said to be practicing after one day off. We'll see if he loses that half a step that has put him perhaps at the top of the heap for the Bama defense.

The most costly setback last weekend was the loss of senior leader Shaun Dion Hamilton, who has now suited up for his last game at Bama due to a cracked patella. Mack Wilson is also out with a foot injury for at least several weeks, so the team loses both the on-field coaching of Hamilton and the continually improving skills of 5-star Wilson. Anfernee Jennings and Moses were also said to be limited in practice this week, but Tide fans need to hope they can play. Jennings was out for a few games earlier this year from an injury but has made huge contributions to the pass rush since returning to full speed.

Oh my, what does the Tide do with the loss of four key starters in the LB rotation and others hobbled a bit?

Well, let's take a look before you despair, because no one in America is giving the Tide sympathy anyway over losing a few players. Mehki Brown will be in the OLB rotation, bringing experience from every game this season along with his four-star rating and at least one rating service giving him a top ten ranking. Along with Brown will be freshmen Chris Allen and Ben Davis.  Allen came in with ratings of #3 or #4 nationally at LB--and Ben Davis was the 2016 nation's top-rated linebacker as a 5 star recruit. It may be time for this redshirt freshman to step up.

At inside will be veteran Keith Holcombe, along with five-star Rashaan Evans who was last week's Defensive Player of the Week. He's a ferocious player and I believe will be ready to shoulder even more of the burden of responsibility. Also entering the rotation will be future superstar Dylan Moses--the nation's top high school linebacker last year as the Butkis Award winner. He played and contributed in his first college game against Florida State and has appeared through out the year in significant ways. Vandarius Cowan has been brought over from the scout team and practicing with starters in case needed. He had various top seven ratings out of high school as high as #2 nationally at LB.

The D line remains stout and the secondary is playing well. If Minkah can play through his hamstring injury there appear no real weaknesses there. It's not time to despair. While these injuries will certainly lower the Tide's overall strength and depth, poor play and even a loss should not be blamed on these circumstances. The talent is there to win.

What should we watch for

Last week, JK SCott emerged from his slump (rated at the bottom of the SEC) to become the Tide's best weapon. He was SEC Special Teams Player of the Week and pinned LSU inside the 20 hald a dozen times. Crimson-wearing fans should hope he continues, as Mississippi State had to see how well LSU run defense performed with 8 men in the box, causing numerous three and outs. The Tigers came to town with one message: You will not beat us on the ground. Fortunately for the Tide fans, Hurts responded in the air with key plays and delivered enough yardage to put the Tide in position to win. His targets included not just Ridley but freshmen WRs and tight ends. The Tide D closed then the door.

Mississippi State also brings a strong defensive front to the gridiron, allowing only an average of 124 yards a game on the ground. The two times it allowed a team to exceed 200 yards (Georgia and Auburn) are the two games it lost. Look for them to load the box. A key for Bama will be to reestablish the rushing attack that faltered last weekend. Expect a flurry of early passes in this game to push a couple of folks back off the line and give the running game some room to breathe. The Tide already passes more on first down (120 passes to 85 rushes). Bama averages 278 yards a game on the ground (9th in NCAA) and gains 6 yards a carry. Look for Ridley to be a huge factor in this game, and don't rule out more packages for the tight ends.

MSU's rushing attack isn't far behind the Tide at 259 per game, with 5.6 a carry average. QB Fitzgerald has four games in a row with 100 yards rushing. The Tide will need to cut that in half in order to reduce the time of possession, as both teams average a dominating 32 minutes. The Dogs tend to run on first down, with 125 first down runs to only 71 passes--just the opposite of Bama. It will not help the Bulldogs that leading MSU receiver Donald Gray appears to be slowed a bit with an injury, though he will likely do his best to play through it this week.

While neither team tends to rely on its air attack, the Dogs gain only about 169 yards a game and don't appear to have much of a downfield attack. Look for short passes on the slant route.

Comparison by the numbers

If the comparison of scores against common opponents matters (it does not usually, but is fun to compare), the edge goes to MSU. They drubbed LSU 37-7 and beat Texas A&M by 21. Bama had its two worst and closest games against those two, winning by 14 and 8 respectively.

In total O, Bama has about a 50 yard edge with 477 yards per game to 429. That could be worth a score. Bama has the rushing edge of 278 to 259 and the passing edge 199 to 169, but none of that is huge. One stat that could be an indicator is the 30 rushing Tide TDs to only 19 for the Dogs. The Tide has a slight edge in Red Zone TDs, scoring about one more per game on average. 

In points per game, Bama has a TD difference at 41 a game vs. 34. Both have scored 15 field goals.

On the defensive side, Bama has the edge in most of the stats I follow:

-Bama is #2 nationally in total D allowing 244 yards, while MSU is also very good with a #7 ranking and allowing only 289. This could be a defensive showdown.

-Bama is also #2 nationally in defense against the run, allowing only an average of 76 yards.  State allows 124 and only 3.7 per carry--also not too shabby. This may be the scariest number of all, when you consider that it's better than LSU who allows 142 and about half a yard more per carry than MSU, yet they shut down the Tide rushing attack except in the Red Zone.

-Both the Bulldogs and Bama allow in the mid 160s in passing

Scoring defense is on area where the Tide shines as #1 nationally by allowing only 9.8 points a game.  That comes mostly due to only allowing 9 offensive touchdowns (vs. 18 allowed by the Bulldogs). But again, MSU is stout with a #14 ranking and an average given up of only 18 points.

In sacks, Bama has 29 vs. MSU's 17, so the Tide has about one and a half more per game. On the other hand, Bama has allowed 15 sacks while the Dogs have allowed only 5--giving them a #3 national ranking. The Bama Jack linebackers and blitzers will likely do more chasing than catching this weekend as Fitz seems to be slippery when forced out of the pocket and uses that big frame of his not to be stopped in the backfield.

Turnovers are about the same, with Bama taking it away 16 times vs. 14. The interesting difference is that Bama has 12 INTs to only 8 for the Dogs. Pair that with the Tide's #1 passing efficiency defense (.98 if that means anything to anyone). In real numbers it means Tide has allowed 153 completions in 282 attempts, with 12 interceptions and an average yielded of 168 yards. MSU has a #17 rating in this category. For a fun comparison, LSU is #12, Georgia in #7 and Auburn is #20 in the category.

Prediction: Bama 31/MSU 13

Previous Predictions

Bama 52- Fresno 10    Actual 41-10 I'm happy with this projection.
Bama 42-Col. State 10    Actual 41-23 Slight underestimation of passing game
Bama 33-Vandy 7    Actual 59-0 Who'd a thunk it
Bama 42-Ole Miss 13    Actual 66-3 Wow. And I was worried about a 30-point spread
Bama 40-TAMU 14    Actual 27-19 Biggest miss, though I hinted it could be closer. Didn't bet either.
Bama 48-Ark. 7    Actual 41-9 Pretty damn good. Did bet and won.

Bama 31-Florida State 24    Actual: 24-7 Hmm, just okay. Glad I didn't bet.
Bama 47-Tennessee 7    Actual 45-7 DAMN! Easy money.

Bama 33-LSU 10   Actual 24-10 IF the Tide hadn't taken a knee inside the 5 it might have been 31-10