Alabama Crimson Tide Rematch with Clemson Tigers will be Memorable

Sugar Bowl--CFP Round 1: Alabama vs. Clemson

Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans
Jan. 1, 2018
7:45 p.m. Central

Why Fans Should Expect Another Close Game

When the Clemson Tigers pad their way toward South Louisiana, there will be a confidence in their step. Why Not? They're the reigning national champs, just came off a 38-3 throttling of Miami to win the ACC, have been named number one by a CFP committee that has more statisticians and analysts at their disposal than Vegas, have lost only a couple of games in the past 29 and last time they faced the Tide they came from behind to win against a defense loaded with future NFL stars. They deserve to walk with confidence.

Across the field  the Alabama Red Elephants will be equally confident in their ability to stomp onto the field and take this next step toward a fifth national championship in nine years. Their confident approach comes from the same one-loss season, the leading Vegas Power Ratings (Bama 1 and Clemson 2) in the nation, a handful of future NFL stars, arguably the best and deepest stable of running backs in the nation, the number one DB and defensive player in the nation, and a QB who has been to the big show before. 

Without citing a bunch of stats at this point, it can be generally fair to say that on offense both teams bring a mobile quarterback, a good running game, an almost identical average total yards per game, identical sacks allowed, identical time of possession, similar pass completion, the exact number of rushing touchdowns, virtually the same number of first downs earned, and other stats that show more parity than disparity.

On defense, things look similar: both loaded with talent that will play on Sunday in the next year or two. Both rank top ten in total D, allow similar third down percentages, boast the same passing yards allowed, rank top five in scoring defense, record almost identical tackles for loss per game, and achieved virtually identical first downs allowed (both in top ten). 

Bama has made all four CFP final fours; Clemson three in a row. Neither team will yield; one must impose its will.

Why Clemson fans can be confident and hopeful

The Tigers have reloaded and bring a defense that I'd judge to be slightly better. They have held 11 teams under 21, including Louisville, Auburn, Miami, Georgia Tech, and South Carolina. That usually wins games in the modern era of high scoring. For comparison, the scoring in in the past decade has reached the high 20s. I haven't seen a recent number but ten years ago in 2007 it was 28. 

OJ Howard will not be on the field. His 200 yards over the past two games between these two teams  were a difference that Bama will miss. And no use of the tight end has made up for it, though Irv Smith Jr. has shown moments of excellence when used. (Trivia: Were you aware Irv Jr. is the son of the long-time New Orleans Saints tight end of the same name, who was a star athlete at Notre Dame?)

Clemson has defeated six top 25 ranked teams this year, including number 13 Auburn that beat both Alabama and Georgia this year. They also beat top 25 teams in their last two games by 24 and 35 points to close the season at their peak. Bama can only hope that a month off dulls some of that momentum.

For the season, Clemson's defense has only had to defend 25 Red Zone drives. For twenty percent of those they didnt allow a score. Only 14 touchdowns were scored from the Red Zone (another 5 came from outside the Zone). 

The front seven for the Tigers all have at least two sacks, and the top four have between 5 and 8.5 each. They are a stout bunch, most of whom will soon play on Sunday.

On offense, the line boasts All-ACC linemen at center, guard and left tackle. Their  6'4", 220 lb. quarterback has 13 passing TDs and 11 running, along with 2,678 yards passing and another 646 rushing. He's not Watson, but he brings more mobility to take off when flushed.

And let's not forget that although Coach Nick Saban is thought by many to be the best active coach, he's facing Coach Dabo Swinney who replaced his prize QB Watson and again made it to the playoffs--ranked in the top spot. And he is helped by Tony Elliott who just received the Broyles Award as the best assistant coach in America. They only lost one game this year and the QB was hurt and out for the second half of that game. Coach Swinney has averaged over 10 wins a season as a head coach for ten years--44 in the past three years against 3 losses. 

Why Bama fans can believe

Let's start with the CFP committee. They analyzed the teams thoroughly and believed that Alabama brought something that a conference title winner Ohio State did not bring. I trust they got it right. Vegas thinks so, making the Tide at least a pick'em with top-ranked Clemson in the early lines. 

At the top of my checklist of positives would be experience and leadership. Bama returns a now-seasoned QB in Jalen Hurts that makes few mistakes and rarely puts his team in harm's way. While the low point of his season is probably the Auburn game, I'd say his experience in the playoffs last year is a slight edge at the position for Bama. Hurts threw eight interceptions last year and on throws past the line of scrimmage he had a rating of 148. This year, his rating is 171 and his INTs are down to one that was his. Although the Clemson QB is mobile and a decent passer, I give the nod to Bama.

And on Defense, the QB there is Minkah Fitzpatrick who has been recognized as the top DB and top defensive player in the nation. So leadership will be there on both sides as Minkah should have had time to fully heal or be close enough. I didn't think he looked 100% at Auburn.  On-field leadership can be the difference in a close game.

It appears that Bama's health will be somewhat better than it was the end of the regular season, despite the loss of safety Hootie Jones and LB Shawn Dion Hamilton. With the return of Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis to full speed (I hope and believe) and perhaps Mack Wilson back at LB, the Tide should be deeper and shore up what has been a glaring weakness up the defensive middle. And with Dylan Moses having another month in which he knows he will play a significant role, I believe the defense can again reassert itself. The O line can be ready as well, as Ross Piersbacher seems better. A week ago, Coach Saban suggested that our big freshman DE LaBryan Ray could be back. With Da'Shawn Hand now healthy that is not critical, but depth matters in close games.

One positive has to be this for Bama fans: Deshaun Watson is gone. While his replacement Kelley is having a great season, he's not Watson, who was a once in a lifetime talent and put Clemson on his back last year and was not to be denied in the final drive. Watson had 35 red zone touchdown passes in the last two years he played, while his replacement has just five this year--and two of those were against The Citadel. Bama could be tough in the red zone and force Clemson to kick and keep the score down. Bama has allowed only 6 red zone rushing TDs in 28 opponent drives in the red zone.

And finally, despite the Coaching prowess of Swinney that is considerable, Coach Saban is certainly one who is rarely outcoached. He has the toughest competitive spirit I have ever seen, period. With something to prove after losing last year and then losing to rival Auburn, I believe there is not a coaching staff in America that will be as prepared as this one will be for Bama. When the announcement was made for the final four, Saban was not even listening--he was driving around a recruit. He believes what he says about doing the job in front of you, one play at a time, and the score board will take care of itself. That kind of discipline does not often lose twice to the same coach in successive games.

A look at the numbers gives an edge to Alabama, but not be much

A couple of weeks ago I agonized over what I was seeing for Bama at Auburn. I decided to pick against Bama for the first time ever. But my heart simply would not let me do so, and I kept remembering all the intangibles that make Alabama a different kind of program. I wimped out on my analysis to be honest. I knew deep down it was not looking good. So I finally said it would be close and perhaps a game decided more by a mistake than plan. After a few days I heard that our two LBs who had been out all year would play and I allowed my heart to override my brain and came back to pick Bama in a close one. I had the Bama score exactly right, but certainly underestimated the running game for the Tigers. I promise to try to say what I really think in the future, if I can override my heart.

Lots of things do show parity between these teams and not just the one point difference in their combined scores of the two previous games and the two most successful active coaches. Both teans are penalized about five times a game. Both have 7 or 8 tackles for loss a game. Clemson has 277 first downs to Bama's 275. Bama allows 164 yards passing and Clemson only 170. Both have 36 rushing TDs. And on and on with the parity stats that I will skip over....

But regardless of so many points of evenness between the two teams, this time, the differences are there despite the very, very narrow margin for error that I see. 

Bama scores a few points more than Clemson (39 vs. 35) and yields a couple fewer (11.5 to 13.6). Both make about the same total offense (Bama 465 Clemson 458), but Bama holds teams to 258 (NCAA 1st) to Clemson's 283 (7th NCAA). Bama has yielded only 15 offensive TDs to Clemson's 19. All these add up to little, but at least an ever so slight edge to Bama, maybe a point or two or three.

A couple of other stats show a slight edge to the Tide: 59 offensive TDs to 52. Bama making 6.9 yards per play to 6.1 (yes that's only about two feet, but think in terms of making one or two close first downs and the impact of that two or three minutes on time of possession and defensive rest.) Pair that with Bama's six yards a carry and it is stout. Only four teams make more per carry and none of them has reached seven yards so it's close even with rushing teams like Army and Georgia Tech.

In Bama's favor, look at the Tide giving only 62 rushing first downs to Clemson's 83. And Bama allows only 94 yards rushing (#3 NCAA) to Clemson's excellent but trailing 114 yards a game (NCAA#13). I'd also give Bama a nod for its 161 passing efficiency to only 138 for Clemson, along with 2 INTs from Bama (one by Hurts) to 7 for Clemson. Bama has 23 passing TDs to Clemson's 17. Again, not huge differences but small positives for Bama in many parts of the game. 

In rushing, Bama has an important edge with a 265 yards per game average (10th in NCAA) to 215. Clemson has the edge in passing at 243 a game to Bama's 200, but Bama has the edge in average per pass at 14 yards per completion to 11. Clemson throws a lot of short passes. A key for Bama will be to take away that short throw and force Kelley to go down range where Bama may have an edge. Remember, Clemson only has 17 passing TDs to Bama's 23 so Bama has a bit of an edge.

I noticed two things that could potentially play a role in the outcome, though they could be non-factors, too. First, Bama has made 11 of 11 field goals in side 40 yards, while Clemson has made only 8 of 11. A miss could be important in a game of few points and little spread. Also, Clemson has attempted only 6 beyond 40, making only 2. I assume they have little faith in the kicker on longer field goals. While Bama is not great past 40, it has made 5 of 11.  Could a long field goal be the three points needed?

One final item stood out to me. Bama has had only four punts returned--four a total of 5 yards! Clemson has had 18 returned (more than one a game) for 176 yards. I can do that math in my head and see they give back about ten yards per punt. With Bama's punter coming on strong at the end of the  year and the potential to make up some return yards, my bold prediction is that Bama gets set up on a score on a punt return deep into scoring territory if not all the way that turns out to be the difference. Looking back we may even say it turned momentum.

Prediction: Bama 27 Clemson 20