Homecoming 2017: Alabama Crimson Tide hosts Arkansas Razorbacks
Bama vs. Razorbacks
Bryant Denny Stadium
6:15 p.m.
ESPN
Arkansas rolls into T-town with a mixed bag of results, a coach under fire, and a 2-3 overall record (0-2 in the conference). The Tide comes off an important win that left them with somewhat of a bitter taste, despite the good credentials of the Aggies and the fact that the Tide was coming off of two enormous performances and ready for a natural let-down. A part of me thought there would be some fall off from the previous two weeks, but the numbers simply said the momentum would continue. This Tide team has made finishing games an important goal this year--and needing to recover an onside kick in the final moments to seal a victory is not the definition of finishing. Texas A&M came back from a 24-3 deficit to make the game interesting in the fourth quarter, outscoring Bama 16-3 to finish the game.
As a fan, I had to step back from my disappointment for a moment to realize how spoiled we fans have become. I can remember when any victory, by any spread, was great.
Let's put the success of the Tide in recent years in perspective by looking back at that great 1992 team, especially since we will see this team honored at homecoming on the 25th anniversary of their national championship game where they destroyed Miami in the Sugar Bowl. (Of note: Coach Dabo Swinney was on that team and will be there because Clemson plays on Friday night. I will be cheering for him and very proud of his accomplishments and I hope the rest of the Bama fans can be generous and give the man his due.)
Two games stand out for me for 1992. First, Southern Miss. Bama won only 17-10 (a score that would perhaps horrify a current fan), but not before trailing 10-7 in the third quarter. The only first half touchdown--let me repeat for those who are taking numerous first half touchdowns for granted--the ONLY first half touchdown was from a fake punt. The Tide made a late field goal to tie, and in the ONLY sustained drive the Tide made that day scored a late touchdown to win 17-10 on a one-yard plunge by Chris Anderson.
Two weeks later, the Tide hosted La Tech. Again, the mighty Tide led only 6-0 in the fourth quarter on two field goals, until David Palmer returned to action after sitting out three games on a drunk driving charge to return a punt 63 yards. Final score, 13-0.
So yes, perhaps we are spoiled to be angry with a conference road of ONLY 8 points against a 4-1 conference team sprinkled with great players, whose only loss was by 1 to UCLA on the road.
The matchup this week
Remember all the chants last year of Run da ball? Well the Tide does just that with its 302 average rushing yards per game, placing them 7th nationally in rushing. Add another buck-80 in the air and the Tide enjoys a nice 483 yards per game average. For perspective, that's number one in the best conference in America. It's 30 yards ahead of the closest competitor, Auburn. It's 50 yards ahead of Shea Patterson and his Land Sharks at Ole Miss despite their air war averaging a mind-boggling 358 yards per game.
Arkansas averages 393 on a very balanced attack of 207 passing and 185 on the ground. Interestingly, the Hogs are only one of three in field goals though with along of 48. Not sure what's going on there, as Bama is 11/16 and half the teams in the conference have attempted double digits.
Bama scores on average 43, while the Hogs score 33 on average. TCU held Arkansas to only 7 points and South Carolina kept them in check at 22 in a 48-22 road loss.
The QB matchup is a clear and compelling nod to Bama. Hurts has seven TD passes and no interceptions. Austin Allen has one more TD at 8, but with 4 INTs. He's also been sacked 12 times to Hurts's 8 sacks. Hurts has a completion edge of 63% to 56%.
Both team have a go-to receiver. For the Tide, Ridley has 390 yards and The Hogs have highly recruited Jonathan Nance, a Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College transfer with 374 yards on 23 catches...along with 5 TDs.
Slowing the Razorbacks will be a stingy Tide D, yielding only 10 points (to the Hogs' 31). The Tide holds teams to about 185 yards and Allen only gains about 207, so I expect he could come in right around 200 or fewer this week.
Bama holds teams to around 73 yards rushing, versus the Hogs at 204. The Tide also has 9 interception takeaways to the Arkansas 3.
Arkansas is led defensively by two linebackers, DeJon Harris with 43 tackles and a sack and Dre Greenlaw with 39 tackles. Compare that with the Tide's leading tackler Ronnie Harris at only 31 tackles and Shaun Dion Hamilton with 28. D-Lineman DaRon Payne has 29 and Minkah has 28. I like the fact that tackles are spread among the D Line, LBs and DBs about equally. I don't remember seeing that before.
2. Isaiah Buggs continued to improve and step into the shoes of DaShawn Hand. After 12 tackles in five games, the juco star now has 10 in the last two games. He played like a mad man last week and truly has fulfilled Coach Saban's mantra of next man up when someone goes down with an injury.
3. Bama had a bit of a wake-up call last week and will remember. Add that to coming home to play and the excitement of a national championship team in the house--and it spells motivation.
4. Bama will stop this Arkansa rushing game, as the top two rushers combine only for about what Harris and Hurts each have on the ground.
5. Bama is allowing 3rd down conversions at a rate of 27%. I expect at least one critical takeaway, and possibly two, by the Tide D when Allen or his sub gets banged around on third and long.
For fun, consider this: Bama's FPI (power rating) is 30. The Arkansas rating is.09. That rating is based on 10,000 game simulations and predicts points above average for the remainder of the season. Here are a few for comparison: Ohio State 29, Clemson 24, Auburn 20, Georgia 21. By the way, this rating predicts Bama has a 44% chance of winning out. Compare with, say, Georgia, that has a 6% chance, or Clemson with a 29% chance. and its most likely loss to Bama in the Natty.)
My prediction: Arkansas will only 300-325 total yards and most of those outside the 25. Bama will gain around 450, scoring early and often. I expect Bama to play mad.
Final score: Bama 48/Arkansas 7
The QB matchup is a clear and compelling nod to Bama. Hurts has seven TD passes and no interceptions. Austin Allen has one more TD at 8, but with 4 INTs. He's also been sacked 12 times to Hurts's 8 sacks. Hurts has a completion edge of 63% to 56%.
Both team have a go-to receiver. For the Tide, Ridley has 390 yards and The Hogs have highly recruited Jonathan Nance, a Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College transfer with 374 yards on 23 catches...along with 5 TDs.
Slowing the Razorbacks will be a stingy Tide D, yielding only 10 points (to the Hogs' 31). The Tide holds teams to about 185 yards and Allen only gains about 207, so I expect he could come in right around 200 or fewer this week.
Bama holds teams to around 73 yards rushing, versus the Hogs at 204. The Tide also has 9 interception takeaways to the Arkansas 3.
Arkansas is led defensively by two linebackers, DeJon Harris with 43 tackles and a sack and Dre Greenlaw with 39 tackles. Compare that with the Tide's leading tackler Ronnie Harris at only 31 tackles and Shaun Dion Hamilton with 28. D-Lineman DaRon Payne has 29 and Minkah has 28. I like the fact that tackles are spread among the D Line, LBs and DBs about equally. I don't remember seeing that before.
Keys this week
1. Allen couldn't go in the 4th quarter last week and appears to be slowly healing. His replacement did well, but don't expect either of them to match Allen's yardage from last year where he threw for 400 yards despite being harried all day. Also, Allen is the most hit QB in America, a dubious title. Last year the Tide had 6 sacks and 12 hurries in this game. That will repeat.2. Isaiah Buggs continued to improve and step into the shoes of DaShawn Hand. After 12 tackles in five games, the juco star now has 10 in the last two games. He played like a mad man last week and truly has fulfilled Coach Saban's mantra of next man up when someone goes down with an injury.
3. Bama had a bit of a wake-up call last week and will remember. Add that to coming home to play and the excitement of a national championship team in the house--and it spells motivation.
4. Bama will stop this Arkansa rushing game, as the top two rushers combine only for about what Harris and Hurts each have on the ground.
5. Bama is allowing 3rd down conversions at a rate of 27%. I expect at least one critical takeaway, and possibly two, by the Tide D when Allen or his sub gets banged around on third and long.
For fun, consider this: Bama's FPI (power rating) is 30. The Arkansas rating is.09. That rating is based on 10,000 game simulations and predicts points above average for the remainder of the season. Here are a few for comparison: Ohio State 29, Clemson 24, Auburn 20, Georgia 21. By the way, this rating predicts Bama has a 44% chance of winning out. Compare with, say, Georgia, that has a 6% chance, or Clemson with a 29% chance. and its most likely loss to Bama in the Natty.)
My prediction: Arkansas will only 300-325 total yards and most of those outside the 25. Bama will gain around 450, scoring early and often. I expect Bama to play mad.
Final score: Bama 48/Arkansas 7
"Topline stuff" is still pretty good, Bud.
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