Crimson Tide takes on Tennessee Volunteers: Third Saturday in October

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers
October 21, 2017
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2:30
CBS Television

Tradition matters

The temptation is to jump on the bandwagon and talk about how The Tide will drown old Rocky Top and cram 40 points down his throat. But I'd rather think back to two memorable games in recent years before we go down that road.

Let's start with 2009. Bama entered the game ranked number one in the nation and as 14-point favorites. Well into the 4th quarter, Bama led 12-3, when Mark Ingram (who would win the Heisman that year) did the unimaginable. For the first time in 296 carries, he fumbled. The Vols rode an adrenaline high right into the end zone. Then recovered an onside kick. Holy Pigskin, Batman, what's going on?! After the drive stalled at the 28, big Mount Cody (Terrence to his mom), blocked the line drive kick and Bama held on for a win. After this close win that could have gone into the L column, Bama went on the capture a national title.

In 2015, The Vols entered the game high from an upset of Georgia. Again, a close game and Bama led only 13-7 in the 4th. It felt ominous during the game and we all knew the lead would not hold. Tennessee had a great back and rode him to the a 14-13 lead. Bama then boarded the Henry train and executed a long drive on the back of Derrick Henry (who would also win the Heisman that year) to go up 19-14, followed by a missed 2-point conversion.  With Tennessee driving, Ryan Anderson forced a fumble and the Tide held on. Again, going on the win a national championship.

While we may all have our competitive ideas about Auburn and enjoy that rivalry, this is the real rivalry that matters most to me. It's older and deeper than Auburn, without the pettiness. Bama leads the series 54-37-8. In the modern era, one team or the other tends to go on long winning streaks. Tennessee owned Bama in the late 90s. From '95-'06 (pre-Saban Era) Bama only won two games.  Bama has since won ten straight.

The game is historically known as The Third Saturday in October, and was always played then until the SEC split into two divisions in 1995. Since then only half a dozen times has the game actually been on that date like is it this year.

Another important tradition is the winner cigar.  Longtime trainer and Sports Hall of Fame member Jim Goostree started the tradition by giving out cigars to the winner decades ago. When political correctness began rearing its ugly ugly ugly head (was that clear on how I feel?), the tradition was suspended. In 2005, Alabama reintroduced the tradition and simply began self reporting to NCAA and paying its price for the use of an illegal benefit and tobacco use. If I'm not mistaken, I think the Vols do the same thing.

Bama's hill is higher than usual for the Vols to climb this year

Just think about these stats and how you might prepare for this team. Bama is now the only team that can claim a top 15 national ranking in these categories:

-Scoring Defense (2nd) AND Scoring Offense (9th)
-Rushing Defense (1st) AND Rushing Offense (7st)
-Total Defense (4th) AND Total Offense (15th)

How do you prepare for that?

And think about this: Bama averages a 33-point win margin this year. And a 236-yard rushing edge. And a total 231-yard total offense edge. Yikes.

Just the facts

The Tide comes into the game rated atop the SEC in Total Offense, with 485 yards per game. Tennessee is rated near the bottom with 320 yards a game, above only Vandy at around 300.

In the passing game, Tennessee at 185 a game and Bama at 182 per game are about a tie. But the rushing numbers spell disaster for the Vols as Bama averages 303 yards to the Volunteer's 135 a game. Scoring doesn't look so good either as the Tide scores on average 43 and the Vols 22. Assuming each team scores about its average, you'd come up with a layman's easy comparison and call it a 21 point difference. The problem with that is that almost no team reaches its normal numbers against the Tide, so the Vols might rush for under a hundred and pass for under 185. They could easily gain only about 250 or so. And they could score well below 22, while the Tide could easily exceed its 43 ( the Vols yield 33 on average to the Tide giving up only 10 a game). Am I predicting that? Not really, not yet. But I might when I get to the end of this analysis.

Here's a factor or two that says the Vols have the potential to do better than these stats might suggest. Remember, these are not machines playing. They are flesh and blood teenagers (mostly). First, with just a play or two different or a different bounce of the ball or a batted down hail mary, the Vols could be 5-1 with only a big loss at Georgia (just like 2011 when the Tide was number 1 and 7-0 and the Vols were 3-3 with losses at Florida and Georgia).

Tennessee could easily have won this year at South Carolina (lost 15-9 after leading in the 3rd quarter 9-3 and stalling on the 2 yard line with three incomplete passes) and Florida (lost 24-20 on a Hail Mary pass). And the fact that Coach Butch Jones is being slammed and predicted  to be fired shortly on every sports talk show I listen to. Who knows how players might response and step up their game for their coach. It has happened.

Despite that one glimmer of hope that the Tennessee fans can hang on to for a good game, the rest of the story isn't that good. Tennessee yields 374 yards per game to Bama's 254. That made up of 201 passing and 173 rushing for Vols Defense, while the Tide D gives up 188 in the air but only 67 on the ground. That ground game absolute wall the Tide puts up will stop the Vols just like it did Arkansas last week. And despite losing Allen and Williams from last year's defense to rush the passer, this year's Tide seems even more balanced on defense to me. We move the QB out of the pocket and disrupt many many pass plays.

Bama has the edge in almost every stat: 19 sacks to 13; 10 interceptions to 2; and holding opponents to a rating or 102 for Bama (127 for Vols).

Bama ha sscored 24 rushing TDs to the Vols' 11. Bama has a couple of 75 yard rushes and several long runs, while the long run for the Vols is only 33 yards for the year.  Bama averaged 6.5 yards per rush, which cuts down on third and anything. The Vols only make about 4 yards, so it brings up lots of third downs and the Tide is good on third down defense.

The finish

The Tide can top 500 yards, with 300 or so on the ground as we average about 7 per carry (the Vols yield 6.8 per carry anyway) and 200 in the air. I expect a couple of sacks and an INT. I don't see the Vols getting much going and only rushing for 70 yards. Their top RB John Kelly is right behind Hurts and Harris in total yards, so he is no slouch. But this is not his week. The Vols will get about 190 in the air and maybe 70 or fewer on the ground for 250 or so total. Not enough to score more than a TD or a couple of field goals.

Final prediction: Bama 47/ Vols 7

Watch for Miles to make his prediction sometime on Wednesday!

Previous Predictions

Bama 31-Florida State 24 Actual: 24-7 Hmm, just okay
Bama 52- Fresno 10 Actual 41-10 Decent
Bama 42 Col. State 10 Actual 41-23 Slight underestimation of passing game
Bama 33-Vandy 7 Actual 59-0 Who'd a thunk it
Bama 42-Ole Miss 13 Actual 66-3 Wow. And I was worried about a 30-point spread
Bama 40-TAMU 14 Actual 27-19 Biggest miss, though I hinted it could be closer. Didnt bet either.
Bama 48-Ark. 7 Actual 41-9 Pretty damn good. Did bet and won.