Can Bama maintain dominance on the road vs. Texas A&M Aggies?
Photo in honor of Bama's connection to TAMU, Coach Bryant's last stop before Mama called him home to Tuscaloosa. He coached there 1954-57, during which time he attempted to integrate the football team. When told by a board member that they would be the last team in the conference to do so, Bryant reportedly said, "Then that's where we're going to finish in football."
Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, Oct. 7, 2017
Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
ESPN
Bama is -26.5 (opened at 24-25)
I want to start with the thing most encouraging to me from last week. While at the start of the season, and especially in the Florida State game, I was hoping for a bit more misdirection in this offense. I simply did not see it. Or little proven plays like the bubble screens so effective last year. But when Josh Jacobs came in and served as a runner decoy, only to then become receiver and purposely get lost behind the defense to allow him a wide open scoring pass catch, I saw something in this offense that went far beyond the zone read misdirection and flashed on brilliance. Coach Brian Daboll is really winning me over as he gradually opens this great new playbook to add new wrinkles week after week.
The other thing that caught my eye this week was the wonderful early Christmas gift from ESPN. Just when I was worried about the Tide getting the big head and losing focus from the 125-3 spread over the past two weeks, ESPN slid Clemson ahead of the Tide in their poll. THANKS ESPN. This angry bunch needed that little reminder of last year's title game and Clemson. It also took some of the attention and distraction away from Jalen Hurts going home to Texas and playing about 75 miles from his high school.
The Aggies (4-1) started the season by jumping on UCLA with a 44-10 lead, before a monumental collapse to lose 45-44. To make things worse, the winning touchdown came on a Josh Rosen fake spike with seconds remaining that ended with a touchdown pass.
While the Bruins have a decent team, they're merely 3-2 with losses to Memphis (who in turn lost to UCF) and Stanford (who lost to San Diego State). And they squeaked past a 3-2 Colorado squad. So that loss to the Bruins is troubling in several ways. They are not a juggernaut that merely needed to be awakened to come roaring back.
The next week, Nichols took TAMU into the fourth quarter with a tie before the Aggies stretched the lead to 24-14 with late scores.
You can see where I'm headed with this. The Aggies have had their moments of both excellence and utter bewilderment. The Arkansas (2-2) win came 50-43 in overtime, with the Aggies giving up nearly 500 yards of offense. And the South Carolina win was by only 7 over yet another 3-2 team.
On the bright side for the Aggies, freshman QB Kellen Mond can run and throw, riushing for 95 and throwing for 159 against the Gamecocks. And they came back from a 17-7 deficit in the third quarter on the road. Good stuff for any SEC win and really big for a freshman.
The backfield for the Aggies is also stout from the legs of RBs Keith Ford and Trayveon Williams.
When the ball switches to the Bama side, the Aggie defense will need to figure out a scheme to slow the Tide on first down. The Tide averages 8 yards per rush on first down and 11 yards per pass on first down. The Tide hasn't had that many third downs this year (which may haunt them down the stretch against an Auburn or Mississippi State defense on the road).
The Tide hasn't had a turnover this year and clearly they are due. This could be the week, as the Aggies have 12 turnovers (compare to the Tide with 10). On the other hand, I value INTs above recovered fumbles and the Tide has the edge with 8 to the Aggie's 5.
A quick rundown of the offenses shows a nice match up of #1 in SEC Total O Crimson Tide at 509 a game against SEC #2 Aggies with 448 a game. Bama scores 46 on average and TAMU 37. A review of the Tide scoring versus SEC road foes is worth mentioning, as it shows Bama averaging over 50 for the past several games, as they tend not to pull starters as quickly.
Each team has 193 yards in the air, but Bama has a #4 national ranking in the rushing game with 316. Again, the Aggies are no slouch at #14 nationally and 2nd SEC (to the Tide #1 SEC, of course) with 256 yards per game average.
The Tide has an edge in yards per carry of 6.7 to the TAMU 5.3. That yard and a half average for 30 carries is half a football field and perhaps a score difference. The extra 50 yards per game is another score, if the Aggies are held below average and so far that is the norm for this Tide stop-the-run-at-all-costs defense.
Field goal kicking is about even with the Tide 9/13 and Aggies 9/14.
The punting and kicking game comparison is interesting. Bama, despite a punter that most would kill for, continues to rank at the bottom of the conference. He does have the fewest punts in teh conference by a wide margin, but still... Anyway, Bama will give up about 6 yards on a punt exchange, but makes up for it with 5 yards more on kick returns so it's about a wash if kicks and punts even out.
On defense, Bama continues to improve as the LB group heals, But with the DaShawn Hand MCL injury we will see if that front takes a small step backward.
One stat cannot be overlooked--Bama ranks #1 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9. TAMU allows 28 on average and twice gave up 43 or more. This stat suggests a wide winning margin to me, though I certainly do not think the Tide will blank this offense as it has others recently.
Bama is allowing 249 yards a game and that's good enough for a couple of scores if field position is not terrible for the Aggies the entire game. The Aggies, on the other hand, allow 387 yards. It would appear that Bama could get close to its average or at least well into the 400s and that could mean Ball Control and TOP. I look for the Tide passing game to continue to improve and this week against a defense yielding 292 passing yards could be a good week for Hurts and perhaps even Tua.
The Aggies are good on stopping the run, with a #15 national ranking and giving up only 96. But the Tide is #2 and allowing only 76, so again edge to Bama.
In sacks, Bama better watch out. The Aggies bring a record of 20 sacks this seasons--twice Bama's number--to go with their 12 takeaways. Watch for big Landis Durham, who has 6 of the Aggie sacks.
While TAMU must be respected, I will go ahead and say that the Alabama team I am seeing lately would beat this Aggie team about 49 of every 50 times they play. And for you bettors, in Bama's last 8 games on the road against teams with winning records they are 8-0 against the spread.
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