"We want Bama," Vandy says. Really? Can Tide Sink the Commodores?

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt Stadium
Nashville
Sept. 23, 2017
2:30 central time
Airs on CBS
Bama record against: 59-20-4
Betting line Bama -19.5

The Commodores' sails are full this week after a mild upset of Kansas State 14-7 last Saturday, prompting defensive lineman Nifae Lealeo to say, "When you come to our house, we show you how to play some SEC ball...Alabama, you're next." Mighty big words, but at 3-0 and with a win over a previously ranked team, let's let that pass as adrenaline and exuberance that I love to see. Good for you, young man.

And for you 18,000 fans at the end of the game shouting "We want Bama", just be careful what you ask for (K-State took 20,000 of the tickets). Ask Washington, the last team to shout that to the nation, after going 12-1 in a very good conference only to return home after a 24-7 whipping in the Final Four where they went the final three quarters without a score.

But the truth is that this is not a typical Vandy team. They are tough, well coached, and have an attacking defense. Watch for them to constantly move the D Line around, trying to confuse Jalen as he looks for the holes in his zone read calls. Coach Derek Mason has them playing well and feeling confident. They are 5-0 at home in last five games, including two over ranked teams.

This year they reached 3-0 with a 42-0 win over Alabama A&M, a whipping of Middle Tennessee 28-6 and the 5-point underdog win over K-State. Nice start with a 28-point scoring average.

But here is some context for those wins. A&M is 0-3, including a 45-0 loss to South Alabama and a 38-7 loss to UAB (a team that lost to Ball State by 20).  And Middle Tennessee is 1-2.

So how do the teams compare offensively?

Vandy QB Kyle Shurmur is doing a fine job with a 69% completion rate (compare Jalen at 65%). He has a QBR of 183, while Jalen is about the same at 179. Shurmur has an 8-0 TD/INT ratio to Jalen's 4/0. Vandy gains about 9.5 per attempt to Bama's 9.

[By the way, if you can truly understand how they came up with the NCAA QBR you are a better person than I am, and I do get math easily. I do think it works as a comparison, but the formula involves a  strange concoction adding three sets of  numbers that are on a 100 point scale and one set subtracted: Completions/Attempts, plus TDs/ATT times 3.3, minus INT/ATT, and adding back an 8.4 multiple of yards/Att. Get it? Me neither but it is an indicator.]

A big weakness in the Vandy offense in the rushing game. Ralph Webb leads with 149 yards, but only a 2.6 yard per carry average. That will not improve Saturday. And his longest run is 9 yards. The second back has a better per carry average but not many carries.

Contrast that rushing game (103 per game) to Bama's 239 yards a game with these two (not to mention two more with significant carries and good averages): Hurts: 300 and 8.7 per carry, Harris with 158 and 6 per carry.

Overall, Bama gains 418  a game (179 pass/239 run) to Vandy's 346 (243 pass/103 run). Bama scores 35 points with a season low of 24 (averaged 39 for the year last year) to the Vandy 28 point average with a season low of 14.

Of note, Vandy does not have a field goal or a rushing TD. Bama is 7/10 on field goals with a long of 46. And has rushed for seven TDs. If the game is as close as the odds makers show, these two stats would suggest a huge lean toward a Bama win  if they continue to hold course.

Watch for senior Trent Sherfield (WR) for Vandy, who has 12 receptions for an outstanding 19.5 average. He has 9 catches for 184 yards last year in the big win over Tennessee and is a true threat. But the other notable threat I think helps the Vandy offense click is their superior use of the tight end. Jared Pinkney has 9 catches for a 14 yard average. That creates fits for a defense, though Bama has been in the Dime defense a lot this year and is well practiced for it.

Stout defense may be the standard this week

Vandy has three numbers that should catch anyone's attention: 7, 6, and 0--the scores they have allowed.  That's a 4.3 average to Bama's very good 13.3 average. As discussed above, the only good thing about that information on the excellent Vandy defensive performance is that Vandy's opponents are a combined 3-6. Nevertheless, I think it is fair to call this Vandy defense very good. They rank 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have 5 interceptions (just like Bama). And they have 10 sacks for 65 yards lost to Bama's 5 for 29 yards.

Vandy yields 198 yards a game to Bama's 305. Bama, of course , has played a good Florida State team and faced the number one offense in the nation in Colorado State with over 1900 yards already. Even Fresno State is decent in total yards--ahead of Auburn and Georgia, for example, and in a virtual tie with LSU, Tennessee, Nebraska and Michigan, for context.

Charles Wright for Vandy leads the SEC in sacks with 7. Watch him. But it could backfire if it forces Hurts to run....something to watch.

Sorting it out

It appears this could be a good game. The smaller stadium may negate some of the road noise and remove a bit of the typical home advantage. Obviously Vandy will come in with confidence, so I have a feeling the Bama coaches may not be probing as much in the early game as usual and perhaps will insert a few more potentially explosive plays earlier into the scripted start the generally follow.

Bama has an edge in overall efficiency as a team when combining their scores for offense, defense and special teams to come out no. 3 nationally with a 93% rating. Vandy is up there at #15, but I honestly cannot see those numbers holding up over time as they get into the SEC schedule.  Bama's offense efficiency is 88% to the Vandy 62%. I believe that offensive firepower, especially on the ground where Bama may be able to control time of possession a bit better this week.

With the linebacker group healing a bit, it would seem the passing defense will improve as there is added pressure on the QB. Vandy has high numbers on its yards per completion which suggests they have had time in the pocket to let routes develop. If Bama can rush that time, it will be ery problematic for a team that simply will not have a ground game. Expect many third and long passes for Vandy. If the Tide can control that down, it could manage the game well.

Bama's running backs have all shown they have a role and can serve well in that role. Jalen Hurts is beginning to find a wider range of receivers, and his ability to tuck and run has never been in doubt since we saw him take over the A-Day game in Spring 2016.

One fact jumped out at me over everything I reviewed this week--the K-State QB ran for 126 yards. Jalen should have a good day on the ground, which opens up the passing game a bit.

Bama will wear down the Dores over time, though there will be moments when Tide fans will wonder...

Final Score:
Bama 33/Vandy 7