Nation's Longest Home Winning Streak on the line When Crimson Tide hosts Ole Miss
Alabama vs. Mississippi Football
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Saturday, Sept. 30
8 p.m. central
Bama is -28 in Vegas
Alabama leads series 48-11-2
Bama won in 2016 by a narrow 48-43
Mississippi Coached by Matt Luke
The Crimson Tide football team will defend its 14-game home winning streak on Saturday. Southern Cal has a 12-game streak as the next closest.
The Tide opponent Ole Miss will roll into Tuscaloosa trying to recover from a somewhat sloppy loss to California that I thought they should have won. The Rebs are also trying to rebound from a 5-7 year after losing exactly half their starters at the end of 2016, but the good news for Mississippi is that QB Shea Patterson continues his march to football history as one of the most prolific passers in the school record books and the Reb are 2-1. After coming in last year to engineer a comeback win over then no. 8 Texas A&M near the end of the season, he has not slowed for a second. Patterson currently leads the SEC as a passer. For comparison, he's ahead of the junior Missouri QB Drew Lock who threw for 3400 yards last year. So far Patterson has engineered respectable 45-23 and 47-27 wins over UT-Martin and South Alabama, respectively.
The Tide opponent Ole Miss will roll into Tuscaloosa trying to recover from a somewhat sloppy loss to California that I thought they should have won. The Rebs are also trying to rebound from a 5-7 year after losing exactly half their starters at the end of 2016, but the good news for Mississippi is that QB Shea Patterson continues his march to football history as one of the most prolific passers in the school record books and the Reb are 2-1. After coming in last year to engineer a comeback win over then no. 8 Texas A&M near the end of the season, he has not slowed for a second. Patterson currently leads the SEC as a passer. For comparison, he's ahead of the junior Missouri QB Drew Lock who threw for 3400 yards last year. So far Patterson has engineered respectable 45-23 and 47-27 wins over UT-Martin and South Alabama, respectively.
In three games, the 6'2" Shreveport native Patterson has over 1200 yards and a 427-yard average--150 yards per game more than the next closest team. Bama averages 179 in its aerial attack, making most of its yards in its 300+ rushing attack.
One interesting stat: Patterson completes 75% of his passes anywhere from his own 1 to the opponent's 40. But if my math is right, the completion rate once he gets inside the 40 goes down to 58%. Patterson has a good 182 QBR.
One interesting stat: Patterson completes 75% of his passes anywhere from his own 1 to the opponent's 40. But if my math is right, the completion rate once he gets inside the 40 goes down to 58%. Patterson has a good 182 QBR.
In total yards, these two teams appear close, with Bama averaging 482 a game and the Rebels 497. These teams have played each other close over the past three years, with the Rebels outscoring the Tide 109-102 in the last three and taking the 2014 and 2015 games. And last year was almost another upset.
The rushing game is a clear problem for Ole Miss this year and could be a significant factor in giving Bama an edge, with a paltry 70 yard game average. The leading rusher for the Rebs is Jordan Wilkins with only 28 carries in three games, for 104 yards and less than 4 yards a carry. When Bama has the ball, Damien Harris will lead the charge against a Rebel defense giving up 184 yards on the ground average. Against Vandy, Harris had 151 yards and three TDs. Bo Scarbrough added 79 and 2 TDS, and other runners had significant yards. It was good to see Jacobs back and the Najee to get some runs early. At the end of that game, to keep things in check, Coach Saban had red-shirt junior Ronnie Clark in the game as running back. Clark is listed in the Media Guide as a tight end.
It's worth a reminder that all-everything freshman Tua Tagovailoa came into this game and lit up the skies with a passing game that left fans anxious for the day we will see that offense all together and seasoned. Last week we saw 5-stars Jeudy and Devonta Smith in the game and both on the receiving end of TD passes from Tua (their first) while true freshman and consensus top-ranked RB in the nation was in the backfield. And don't forget the other 5-start Henry Ruggs who is the third bigtime freshman WR in this group. with a TD against Fresno State. Go ahead right now and mark down my prediction for Bama to have one of if not the top scoring offense in the nation in 2019.
The rushing game is a clear problem for Ole Miss this year and could be a significant factor in giving Bama an edge, with a paltry 70 yard game average. The leading rusher for the Rebs is Jordan Wilkins with only 28 carries in three games, for 104 yards and less than 4 yards a carry. When Bama has the ball, Damien Harris will lead the charge against a Rebel defense giving up 184 yards on the ground average. Against Vandy, Harris had 151 yards and three TDs. Bo Scarbrough added 79 and 2 TDS, and other runners had significant yards. It was good to see Jacobs back and the Najee to get some runs early. At the end of that game, to keep things in check, Coach Saban had red-shirt junior Ronnie Clark in the game as running back. Clark is listed in the Media Guide as a tight end.
It's worth a reminder that all-everything freshman Tua Tagovailoa came into this game and lit up the skies with a passing game that left fans anxious for the day we will see that offense all together and seasoned. Last week we saw 5-stars Jeudy and Devonta Smith in the game and both on the receiving end of TD passes from Tua (their first) while true freshman and consensus top-ranked RB in the nation was in the backfield. And don't forget the other 5-start Henry Ruggs who is the third bigtime freshman WR in this group. with a TD against Fresno State. Go ahead right now and mark down my prediction for Bama to have one of if not the top scoring offense in the nation in 2019.
Okay, enough dreaming. Back to the present. While the NCAA #4 passer Patterson is a concern for Bama defense, the Tide D-side has played two ranked passing games in #20 nationally Colorado State and #42 Fresno State. The indirect answer to the Ole Miss passing attack will be the #5 national rushing attack that Bama can use to keep Patterson off the field. But more importantly the DBs are now fairly seasoned in this lineup and the outside LB group is healing--and it was noticeable last weekend to have a couple of those guys back.
A couple of other offensive stats are worth a mention. The Tide averages 41 points a game, while Ole Miss has averaged 36. Bama is 8/11 in field goals with a 46-yard long. Rebs: 4/7 and 29 long. (Bama's kicker is an Ole Miss transfer in case you missed it.) Ole Miss averages 6 yards more on punts, but Bama returns on average 10 yards (to the Mississippi 2 yards), so the net impact is about even in the punting game. Overall, a clear lean toward the Tide in those numbers, perhaps worth 10 points.
On the D side for Ole Miss, I'd keep my eyes on Marquis Haynes, who can be a sack machine and disrupt a game if he gets going. He's third in all-time leaders in sacks at Ole Miss. While only 6'2 and 230 (not big by DE standards these days and seems like a linebacker to me), he has speed for a pass rush and can blow by an OT if he gets a step on them. He has 12 tackles so is about on pace with last year. The other end, Qaadir Sheppard, is a bit bigger, a kid who transferred from Syracuse after being kicked off the team there. But he only has 6 tackles and is not making that many waves so far. The middle is anchored by the big-time, 5-star recruit Bonito Jones, so he may be fun to watch as he begins to come into his own and deliver his 315 pounds into the fray.
Bama allows 10 points a game and the Rebs 26. While the Rebs have 13 tackles for loss to the Bama 8, in yards allowed per game there is a huge Bama advantage: Bama allows 248 to the Rebs 369. And in rushing yards Bama only allows 70 to the Ole Miss 184 allowed. Bring that Bama D against the run to the Reb's very low rushing average and that spells disaster for any attempt at a balanced offensive attack from Mississippi. They will have to go with the pass. I'd say that Coach Saban is not one to hesitate blitzing when the opponent's running game stalls, so a QB hurry here and there, a couple of knockdowns and perhaps two or three sacks are on the drawing board if needed. I'd give the Tide a two TD edge due to the running game comparison and time of possession likely tilting to Bama by at least four minutes (32-28 or even 33-27 minutes?), which is enough for a score and a couple of first downs extra.
The Rebs will throw early and often--mostly against a Dime package with three safeties in the game as Fitzpatrick moves into a corner, slot, or what will appear a LB position. It will be hard to follow all the moves he will make to lead this attack. It will take this kind of sophisticated defense to try to slow the SEC no. 1 receiver AJ Brown, with 389 yards on 16 catches and 4 TDs. Close behind is DeMarkus Lodge with 284 yards, ranked third in the SEC.
Patterson and his great receiver group will be hard to bottle up and keep off the scoreboard, but I do see Patterson on the run a lot with the LB group bringing a bit more speed and fresher legs as it heals up some. If Bama can score early and get a 14 point lead in the first half, I expect to see at least one pick from the Bama D due to seeing 45+ balls in the air. The Rebel running game will not surpass its 70 yard average.
This is not the Rebel team of the past three years, despite several bright spots on offense and some solid defensive guys.
Final Score: Bama 42/Ole Miss 13
A couple of other offensive stats are worth a mention. The Tide averages 41 points a game, while Ole Miss has averaged 36. Bama is 8/11 in field goals with a 46-yard long. Rebs: 4/7 and 29 long. (Bama's kicker is an Ole Miss transfer in case you missed it.) Ole Miss averages 6 yards more on punts, but Bama returns on average 10 yards (to the Mississippi 2 yards), so the net impact is about even in the punting game. Overall, a clear lean toward the Tide in those numbers, perhaps worth 10 points.
On the D side for Ole Miss, I'd keep my eyes on Marquis Haynes, who can be a sack machine and disrupt a game if he gets going. He's third in all-time leaders in sacks at Ole Miss. While only 6'2 and 230 (not big by DE standards these days and seems like a linebacker to me), he has speed for a pass rush and can blow by an OT if he gets a step on them. He has 12 tackles so is about on pace with last year. The other end, Qaadir Sheppard, is a bit bigger, a kid who transferred from Syracuse after being kicked off the team there. But he only has 6 tackles and is not making that many waves so far. The middle is anchored by the big-time, 5-star recruit Bonito Jones, so he may be fun to watch as he begins to come into his own and deliver his 315 pounds into the fray.
Bama allows 10 points a game and the Rebs 26. While the Rebs have 13 tackles for loss to the Bama 8, in yards allowed per game there is a huge Bama advantage: Bama allows 248 to the Rebs 369. And in rushing yards Bama only allows 70 to the Ole Miss 184 allowed. Bring that Bama D against the run to the Reb's very low rushing average and that spells disaster for any attempt at a balanced offensive attack from Mississippi. They will have to go with the pass. I'd say that Coach Saban is not one to hesitate blitzing when the opponent's running game stalls, so a QB hurry here and there, a couple of knockdowns and perhaps two or three sacks are on the drawing board if needed. I'd give the Tide a two TD edge due to the running game comparison and time of possession likely tilting to Bama by at least four minutes (32-28 or even 33-27 minutes?), which is enough for a score and a couple of first downs extra.
The Rebs will throw early and often--mostly against a Dime package with three safeties in the game as Fitzpatrick moves into a corner, slot, or what will appear a LB position. It will be hard to follow all the moves he will make to lead this attack. It will take this kind of sophisticated defense to try to slow the SEC no. 1 receiver AJ Brown, with 389 yards on 16 catches and 4 TDs. Close behind is DeMarkus Lodge with 284 yards, ranked third in the SEC.
Bottom line
I look for Bama to pound the ball and force Ole Miss to heavy up at the line of scrimmage before we see a shot down the field, if needed. We will see three backs, maybe four, before the half, though Damien first and Bo second will see the bulk of the carries. I do see Jalen gaining 50+ yards as well, and overall I look for a 250-yard running game, at least. The passing game will continue to develop and more receivers are now gaining Jalen's confidence so he will look perhaps a half a second longer and find a few of them more. I'd be surprised not to see 175 in the air. And after Tua's appearance last week with precise completions and his ability to stay in the pocket longer than Jalen, and make effortless passes downfield, is it time we will see Tua in the game while it still matters? I won't be surprised if he's part of the game plan going forward.Patterson and his great receiver group will be hard to bottle up and keep off the scoreboard, but I do see Patterson on the run a lot with the LB group bringing a bit more speed and fresher legs as it heals up some. If Bama can score early and get a 14 point lead in the first half, I expect to see at least one pick from the Bama D due to seeing 45+ balls in the air. The Rebel running game will not surpass its 70 yard average.
This is not the Rebel team of the past three years, despite several bright spots on offense and some solid defensive guys.
Final Score: Bama 42/Ole Miss 13
Comments
Post a Comment