Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida State Seminoles: Perhaps the most hyped first game ever. For good reason.

Bama vs. Florida State 

Date: Saturday, Sept. 2

Game Time: 7:00 central

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (AKA Bryant Denny East)

Network: ABC

Before diving into the season opening game prognostication, let me roll back the memory bank to last year for a moment before I go into why the Crimson Tide will continue its dominating play this year (which is not necessarily the same thing as undefeated, of course). Yes, Clemson deserves every bit of the praise it can garner. They took a national championship game from one of the greatest teams in college football history. And it was no fluke. They lined up and won it. No referee BS. No excuses. No tipped pass or blocked punts. The Tigers lined up and did what they had to do.

I forecast the Tide score almost correctly (prediction 30, score 31), but never saw the Tigers reaching 30 on this defense. Here’s what I missed in my analysis. I didn’t see us going 2-15 on third downs, mostly because we were passing in run situations and for some unknown reason we abandoned a running game that was working after our star RB broke his leg. That put the defense on the field for the biggest number of plays all year, by far. Not an excuse, just an observation. Kiffin’s play calling was at times unpredictable and that can be good. But I think Damien and Jacob were ready and had we tried to grind out a few more seconds and yards we would have likely won, yet their numbers were not called. Perhaps the pass plays called were correct, but hindsight suggests not. I also didn’t anticipate 18 incomplete passes. No yards, no time off the clock. I didn’t see the Tide losing in time of passion or think we’d end with a gassed defense. And I certainly never thought Clemson would have 8 more running plays than Alabama.  And I also didn’t realize the impact of losing a linebacker and safety for the game, but the next man up was plenty good so we have no excuses.

What I got right: “…one blown coverage could give this game to the Tigers.” And, that’s enough about last year. I cannot imagine Clemson achieving this level again without Watson. I believe they are now actually over-ranked, not under ranked, with their personnel losses. Now on to the future.

So this year, the Tide will continue to roll. Championships? Maybe, but not for certain. A 10-win season and most likely all of a season in the top ten, almost for sure. A start against Florida State, a trip to the Plains at the end of a tough season, a game when we miss a short field goal or two against a peaking team, and a dark horse in Mississippi State with a fantastic QB could bring the Tide an off year (meaning 10-3, 11-2 or so) -- a year most schools would celebrate anyway. And we should. But we are admittedly spoiled with SEC wins, Final Fours and national championships. My job and yours as a Tide fan is to enjoy being spoiled while we can, enjoy this historic run while it lasts, and hope to stay alive for the next run after this one ends. (Hopefully that is not soon.) But most of all don’t take it for granted. It will come to an end—though not likely in the next three or four years, I believe. The Bear’s 60s run and 70s runs both ended. Miami had its decade. This is a special time and I’m just happy I was alive to see it. And it’s not likely to be over soon.

I have to also say that it doesn’t make me feel good that the #1 pre-season team for the last decade has won it zero times. Of course, #3 has won it only once. Four of the past ten years the pre-season #2 has won the championship, so that slot may be best. Number five is the statistically second best slot to start in. And only two have started outside the top five so I’m happy the Tide is in that top 5. Let’s remember, all records are made to be broken and it’s time for someone to go wire to wire and stay number one. Why can’t that be Bama?

But regardless of who wins, the Florida State game should be dramatic and close, as the first game in history to start a season with two teams in the top three. Both teams are loaded with talent and the parallels are striking:

·       Both teams return a sophomore QB who was a star in his league as freshman or rookie of the year

·       Both have a star safety as QB on the defense

·       These are the only two teams to appear in at least five straight BCS/New Year’s Six Bowl games

·       Both are coached by active coaches among only 11 with winning records against  AP-ranked teams

·       They are the only two teams to finish in the top 25 AP rankings for the past seven years

·       These teams are 1-2 in total wins since 2010 (Bama 86, Noles 78)

·       Bama has the longest consecutive weeks ranking in the top 25 at 148 and the Noles are second at 86

So what happens when they line up? As a Tide homer, despite my attempt to be open minded and accurate in my predictions, I have to want things to go like the past five years when the Tide has faced supposedly challenging openers. The results demonstrate the great coach that Coach Saban can be when there is time to plan: 52-6 vs. a USC team that ended up showing they were very good and finished ranked #3 right behind Bama (odd, huh), 35-17 over a tough Wisconsin team, 33-23 over West Virginia, 35-10 over Virginia Tech, and my favorite, 41-14 over Michigan.

My normal analysis requires three or four games with stats to begin to form a good picture of what to expect, but a few general stats from last year are interesting. Obviously, the relevance is hard to predict and these are just for fun mostly. Last year, Bama scored right at 15 more points against most teams than they normally would yield. And Bama held teams to 18 below their season average. I don’t have that stat for the Noles, unfortunately, and ran out of time to calculate it.

To cut to the chase for this year, I believe the primary answer will rest with the matchup of the Noles defensive line vs. the Tide 0-Line.  Bama has three starters back and seems solid despite losing a first-rounder left tackle. The Noles D-line will also be solid and above average. My best guess is that the Tide will keep enough fresh legs in the backfield and an active QB to wear down the front four of the Noles and be able to put solid second half drives together.

For Bama, RT Jonah Williams has moved to left tackle. He’s backed up by the future star Alex Leatherwood. Pierschbacher will anchor his same left guard spot and do a great job. And at center Bozeman will be a rock. Think about the skill this took: he didn’t allow a sack in the four-game stretch of Auburn, Florida, Washington and Clemson. I’m guessing Cotton will play mostly at right guard and Womack will be right tackle. But I do think the freshman Wills will see some playing time at right tackle and the scouting reports on him in practice are very good. He could take that position after two or three games and certainly will get a chance, as Saban said “…he’s going to be a really good player.” Big words for a freshman behind 8 upper classmen. 

By comparison, Bama’s Da’Ron Payne in the middle and with players like Da’Shawn Hand at DE and Christian Miller at LB, this could again be a run stopping defense. It’s distressing that Raekwon Davis had the stupidity to be out so late in a place he could get a random bullet. Let’s hope he’s healed enough to play, but I doubt it. Junior college transfer Isaiah Biggs is said to be a potential force somewhere on the D-line. Rivals said he was the top DL player and #1 juco guy overall. He could take this group up a notch from where a few folks think it may have dropped. Redshirt freshman Quinnen Williams will be fun to see develop. Two rating services had him at #11 and #16 nationally among DTs. Let’s hope he’s ready to work some.  The Noles have some good players across the line, but they have a converted DE to offensive tackle and moved a starting guard to the other tackle. It makes me have my doubts about their success in repairing a leaky line. And the depth is untested. I give Bama an edge in this matchup, though the LB and DB group for the Noles is very, very good.

The part of the Noles defense that I’ll be watching most is Derwin James, safety, who can line up about anywhere on the defense. He might even be pulled up to something like a Jack LB or even defensive end as a pass rusher. He’s played corner and some LB. He may also spy on Jalen if we see Jalen tuck and run early. Weird, I know. But some claim this guy is the best player in the nation. A true freak. I can’t wait to see Bo and Derwin head-to-head in the open field a time or two. The irresistible force vs. the immovable object. Junior All-American Tarvarus McFadden is also a ball hawk and tied to lead the nation in interceptions with eight.

In a game this close, special teams could be a factor. I have to be concerned about the Tide field goal unit. Punting will be great again on the foot of JK Scott—one of the best in the nation. So far he’s lived up to his national ranking as #1 out of high school. Last year he was second nationally in punts over 60 and 40% of his punts went over 50 yards. And Scott is reportedly kicking the long field goals. He made a 51-yarder in the second scrimmage recently. Ole Miss transfer Andy Pappanastas, a redshirt junior, was 3 0f 3 on field goals so that was an improvement over the first abysmal scrimmage. My hopes are high, based on his 48 made field goals in high school—an Alabama record and two shy of a national record. He’s a tough kid and also played safety in high school.

A comparison of the backfields might give Bama the edge. I might go so far as to call Bama the top backfield in the nation. Sophomore QB Jalen Hurts was one play away from winning a national title as a freshman and is reportedly a stronger and better passer—and playing with a chip on his shoulder. Yes, he finished with a lackluster passing game, but this was one of Bama’s all-time top producing offenses and I believe will be again. When was the last time you remember Bama as a points leader in the conference? Jalen threw for 300 in the Spring game. Behind him is Tua Tagovailoa, perhaps the top ranked QB to call Tuscaloosa home in over 30 years. The first five running backs, if Jacobs is healthy, can all contribute and would start on most teams in the country. Bo Scarbrough is tough, mini-Henry-with-more-wiggle runner who came to Bama as the number 2 athlete in the nation, but Damien Harris is perhaps the most underrated 1000-yard returner in the nation as he finished the year under Bo’s shadow. Hard to believe, especially since he was named the top RB in the nation in his recruiting class. I think Kiffin must have forgotten Damien was standing there in the second half against Clemson. And don’t forget that the Tide signed the nation’s number one consensus player for 2016 and again the top RB in Najee Harris. I predict we will see him in the game, as he has an elusive quality in his game that transcends the ordinary. And forgotten due to this embarrassing wealth of talent is number 5 on the depth chart Brian Robinson—rated number 7 nationally and from just down the street. His practice reports have also been stellar.

The Noles have some depth in the RB position, but has to replace the great Dalvin Cook who was taken in the second round by Minnesota and looks to perhaps start there. His 1600 yards (not to mention a slew of arrests and legal run-ins for battery, gun possession and robbery) will be hard to replace. Stepping up will be his backup, junior Jacques Patrick, who gained 350 yards last year on 61 carries. Reports I see suggest he will be pushed for playing time by freshman Cam Akers, a 5’11, 213 speedy back who is the school’s highest ever ranked offensive player after rushing for 2100 yards and passing for over 3000 yards and 34 TDs as a senior. He played about 15 miles from my home in Mississippi.

At QB the Noles match Bama well. The sophomore was on the run a lot last year from a weak O-line. But he’s still on all the watch lists, like Maxwell and Walter Camp. He passed for 3,350 yards (leading all freshmen) with a 59% completion rate. He ran for another 198 yards.  His claim to fame was the come-back in the opener against Ole Miss, when he erased a 22-point deficit.  Compare those stats with Jalen Hurts who had a 63% completion rate and 2,780 yards in the air plus 954 on the ground. I’d take Jalen every time.

Overall, Bama has an edge in the offensive backfield both at RB and QB, though the Noles will be highly competitive and productive on offense—unless their O-line is not repaired. If not, Bama could really slow their point production. That difference is worth a touchdown and is about the primary difference in this game.

Both teams have good DBs and LBs, but I give a slight edge to Bama when combining the two groups. Bama will miss Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson, but five-star Christian Miller is seasoned and older as a redshirt junior. Remember he was ranked #1 outside linebacker in his class, but was stuck behind some great players. He’s peaking at the right time and could emerge as a superstar. Add to that redshirt sophomore Anfernee Jennings, who came to Bama as consensus 4-star and ranked by various rating systems as high as #7 DE in the nation. Five-start recruit sophomore Terrell Lewis will do a good job on the left DE slot and was ranked in high school as high as #1 by Rivals. He played in 11 games as a true freshman and will be ready to bring his 6’5” 254 lbs to the fight. Florida State and Penn State wanted him for a reason!

On the inside, Shaun Dion Hamilton is supposedly healed at Mike and bringing his 64 tackles back again as a veteran senior leader, along with the other senior Rashaan Evans and his 53 tackles at Will. Five-star Evans proved his value and earned his #1 ranking in high school, though he moved from outside to inside to do it. Senior Keith Holcombe and Dylan Moses, 5-star High School Butkus winner as the nation’s top linebacker, will also see playing time. I expect Moses to play a lot so that he and Holcombe are ready to shoulder the load next year.

Behind the backers, Bama will again have R-senior Averett as an anchor. I admit that two years ago I didn’t care for Averett’s play, but he has grown into a man and I have to give him that. Fitzpatrick will be at strong safety (with Hootie behind him) but could slide down to star and share that with Tony Brown, but Brown is listed as the starter as of today. Former receiver Trevon Diggs has moved over to capture the other corner, after reminding folks he was an elite corner prospect in high school and the number one ranked athlete in the eastern half of the country. Weak safety will again be Ronnie Harrison. This could prove to be the best across the board secondary we have seen at Bama since 1992. I have high hopes for it.

I’ve saved the most interesting group for last. The receivers. The freshman trio of Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs could be the entire WR group for a winning team. Look at their credentials: all are five-star. All were considered elite prospects considered game changers alone, just one of them. Two were rated by at least one service as #3 (Jeudy and Smith) and Ruggs as #11. But they will have to wait their turn for junior Calvin Ridley, ranked in high school as the top receiver in the nation. He  proved it as Freshman All-America with 1000 yards and another 750 yards last year with 7 touchdowns each year. And ahead of the freshman terrific trio is r-senior Robert Foster, also bringing a national #1 ranking from high school. Injuries have hampered Foster, but his explosiveness is real and I predict this to be his year to finally break out. Senior Cam Sims will be in the slot, but I honestly have to admit I have little confidence in this player. I believe and hope that Jerry Jeudy will overtake Sims for the bulk of the work. Sims brings size and speed at 6’5”, and did have 154 yards last year on 14 catches, but I just don’t see enough consistency from him. I’d rather see him in a relief role. I'm happy to be wrong, but I doubt I am.

When the Noles have the ball, the receiver group will have to step up to make me a believer. Of the 10 who were on the roster at the start of 2016 only five remain. The top four receivers of last year are gone. In their place a NC State transfer in Nyquan Murray, who appears solid with a 16 yard catch average and 9 catches, and junior Auden Tate with four starts and 25 catches. I think this could be a weakness the Tide can use to its advantage. The Noles X factor could be sophomore Keith Gavin, a 6’3” 220 pounder that could emerge. He had a 66-yard return last year against Michigan. I believe this difference is worth at least a field goal--but I predict we will miss it.

Bottom line: Bama has a better offensive backfield and better receivers. And probably the better O-line. Much of the rest is similarly matched, despite the Noles returning 68% of its nation-leading sack attack averaging almost 4 a game. Bama can control the ball on the ground and flip the field on punts.

Final score: Bama 31/Florida State 24 (unless the Tide makes the long field goals)