Alabama vs. Clemson Could be Rematch of the Ages

BAMA FANS BE READY
You see Virginia and me smiling after the Championship game last year. I'm hoping for a similar photo this year if the weather improves and we can get to the game. The money (I won't say smart money yet) is pouring into Vegas to take the 6 points and the Clemson Tigers when the National Championship kicks off between Alabama and Clemson in Raymond James Stadium on Monday night, January 9, at 8:30 eastern time on ESPN. Five of seven pickers at ESPN selected Clemson to win outright. Rarely do we see so many picking against Bama and for the betting line to go down instead of up on Bama.

FINDING A WAY TO WIN
The past few days of looking at stats and team performances for Bama and Clemson have left me uneasy. The Tigers' dismantling of Ohio State--though something I really enjoyed--instilled in me a sense of dread. This was a team peaking. This was a team with few flaws and perhaps one of the top two or three players in the nation leading it. This was a team with revenge on its mind....but wait, that is a poor motivator in my experience. So let's not give up just yet...

Bama, on the other hand, looked dreadful on offense. Disorganized. Hesitant. Uncertain.

I began to feel better when my friend Launch sent me an email saying he watched the Clemson players celebrating after the game as if they had reached their goal, while the Bama players I watched celebrated but with a clear look forward and serious comments about more work to be done. Launch thought Bama would cover and I have found him to be a good handicapper.  It's easy to read into this post-game behavior and week of player comments what you want about your own team, but the approach of these two teams' coaches is certainly reflected in their demeanor in striking ways. Both the emotional rah-rah of Coach Swinney  (whom I love by the way and would support coming to Bama if we needed him tomorrow) and his playing the underdog card often and Coach Saban's serious work ethic and focus on process are working. But if all else were truly equal, my money would be on process not emotion.

The comparison of these teams is tricky once you get past the fact that each is fairly balanced with loads of talent on both sides of the ball. Both have had success scoring and average about 39 and a half points per game--though a significant amount of the Bama scoring was from defense. Both teams have great defenses (for example, they rank #4 (Clemson) and #5 (Bama) in passing efficiency defense. Clemson is #7 in scoring defense, and Bama is #1.

When all was said and done--and despite the Ohio State body slam to the mat in the playoff--I could not get past the fact that Clemson won so many games by close scores including losing one, winning one on a last second field goal, and winning one they should have lost on a last second chip shot field goal to NC State. Clemson had wins by 6, 6, 6, 7 (this should have been a loss by 3), 3, and 7, as well as a loss by 1.  Bama on the other hand had two close games of 5 and 10 points, and others were 17, 18, 19 20 and way up from there.

One could argue that this prepares Clemson not to panic in close games. I might argue that this showed a fundamental weakness of not being that dominant. Remember when Notre Dame had this same kind of season where they squeaked by several teams, only to run into Bama in the NC and be embarrassed? Let me be clear, this is not the same situation and Clemson could very well win this game and part of me says they will.  But the other part of me says that  the number one scoring defense, number one rushing defense, and number one total defense on a team that led the conference in scoring has perhaps an edge.

A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
Bama should have an edge in the running game that might make the primary difference if Watson does not have another banner game like last year and too much success passing over the top. My hope is that the difference will be that Bama does not start two freshmen at corner this year like it did last year. Fitzpatrick and Humphrey are now seasoned veterans, and Averette has done a fine job after what looked a bit shaky at times in the first few games. Tony Brown has found a way to contribute and can run with the fastest of receivers.

Bama is rated #1 in rushing defense, against the Clemson rushing game ranked only 62 in the nation with 175 yards a game. I'll go on record predicting they are under 100 in this game and likely under 75. Only two teams have surpassed the century mark against Bama (TAMU and Ole Miss), so my prediction isn't so bold. When the ball goes the other way, Clemson is ranked a respectable #19 in rushing defense giving up 123 (for comparison, Washington was yielding a similar 133). I expect Bama to hit 200 yards or close to it on the ground. If it does not, Clemson wins.

Bama has been averaging 249 a game on the ground, which could really help if it has such success. Bama must control the ball with its ground game and keep Watson's total play number down, thus reducing his chances of the big throw. Bama must make him one-dimensional and then keep him in the pocket as it did years ago against Tebow in the SEC championship. It will be harder, but it would give the Bama defense an opportunity for a pick or two. That could be the difference if Bama is careful with the ball.

While Clemson is highly ranked as 12 in total O and 13 in scoring, Bama is number on in defense in those categories. Can Bama slow Watson down a bit more this year?

Clemson does have a slight total yard average ahead of Bama at 503 to 461, but I have a hard time seeing that again. The bigger edge is the Clemson 328 yard passing average to Bama's 214. Scary numbers for Bama, especially with Eddie Jackson gone and now Shawn Dion Hamilton also out.

Clemson has one stat that is concerning--its 372 first downs (ranking them #2 nationally). Bama will hope to offset this by shutting down the run and forcing incompletions on third down. Both teams average 3.5 sacks and we will likely see those numbers in this game with both teams bringing stout defenses and forcing many third and long situations.

The kicking game reveals no obvious major edge either way, as both  hit about 74% of field goals and have kicked successfully past 40 yards.

HOW CLEMSON CAN WIN
Watson may be the best player on the field. If he runs wild and forces DBs to watch him and hesitate so he can throw over the top, Clemson could torch Bama with big plays. Foster and Tim Williams have to be there to negate the QB scramble.

The defense may be the best Bama has faced and it could depress the scoring to keep it close and let turnovers be a wild card. D tackles Carlos Watkins and Dexter Lawrence are very good. And they are bookended with good pass rushers Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell. Bama fans might wish for a huge falloff from a Clemson defense that had to replace eight starters, but don't count on it being that different.

If freshman Hurts shows up and running game is not stellar, one blown coverage or one turnover could give this game to the Tigers.

HOW BAMA CAN WIN
Watson has only four games without an interception. Facing a defense that will not be beaten on the ground means he will be throwing even more than usual. He already has 17 interceptions (to Hurts 9).
As good as Watson is and despite the questions that remain around Hurts' passing, Hurts completes 65% to Watson's 67%. Admittedly, many of those are one yard passes and behind the line. And Hurts is only 42% completion rate down the field, but in general it will give Bama the opportunity to be more balanced than Clemson offensively.

Bama can run on Clemson, as proven by Pitt. They will do so, and Bama will attempt to throw downfield more than it did against Washington to keep the Tigers honest. Count on Coach Sark to have the offense ready with a slightly different approach despite using the same play book.

Last weekend Bama offense sucked. After a scoring drive it went with 8 punts before another offensive score. Surely that can't happen again. Please tell me that can't happen again!

After watching these two teams play a few games, I believe Bama is slightly better than last year overall and Clemson is ever so slightly down overall. Clemson dominated Ohio State by its 205-88 yard ground game, which will not happen on Monday in the Natty.

Bama will be better this week on offense and the defense always shows up. Clemson has peaked and has nothing else to bring that we have not seen. It may even have a classic letdown if it brings the expectation that Monday will be a continuation of the Buckeye game.

BOTTOM LINE
Coach Saban is not a miracle worker, but he is damn smart. I believe that he has dissected everything about what went wrong last year and has made plans not to repeat it. Cliches become cliches due to an underlying truth and I believe the cliche that says Defense wins championships.

My final stat comparison is the one I believe makes the ultimate difference in what I expect to be a close game. While the percentage of defensive success inside the Red Zone may appear to favor Clemson by a frog hair (78% vs. 80%), the actual  numbers speak volumes to say Bama wins.

Clemson has allowed teams inside the red zone only 36 times, but Bama has only allowed them there 21 times in 14 games. Not even twice a game. Of those trips, the teams scored running touchdowns on the Tigers 13 times--to Bama's 2. Clemson gave up 8 passing touchdowns to Bama's 6. And Bama forced the opponents to kick field goals 9 times (to only 8 TDs), while Clemson gave up 21 TDs to only 7 field goals.

Bama doesn't let teams into the Red Zone very often and when they do it is more often 3 points if they score. Clemson gives up nearly twice as many tries in the Zone and when they do touchdowns are three times more likely than a field goal. That's the difference I predict.

Prediction: Bama 30, Clemson 20