Remembering 2015 and the Playoffs: When Pundits Get it Wrong!

Before starting my analysis of Bama vs. Washington, I thought it would be fun to look back at 2015 and what was being said. Last year I posted this analysis below on Facebook after hearing national uproar over Bama being named by the CFP committee above Michigan State. I thought it would be fun to read it again in light of Bama holding MSU to 239 yards and giving them a total ass kicking 38-0. Not to mention going on to win the Natty. 

Dec. 8, 2015

Dear Bama-Hating Fans and Uninformed Pundits,

Michigan State has a great team and one that can beat Bama. It’s that good. It deserves to be in the football final four. I will be very proud if Bama wins and will know it was a quality win. I will not sit here and boast that Bama can whip the Spartans any day of the week and twice on Sunday, even if I believe it, because the teams are both too good for silly claims from those of us who sit in the stands. I’m not here to knock the MSU team, but after seeing so much in the news and social media world about MSU being better and perhaps Bama not deserving its status, I was curious if maybe it was true.

It first made me wonder about the facts a few days ago when Ohio State WR Michael Thomas posted a tweet which portrayed Alabama as playing a weak schedule. I watched nine games in person and the schedule didn’t seem weak to me. But I was especially driven to check out how we stack up when I saw that sportscaster Mike Greenburg said in part of a tweet, “There is no justification for putting Alabama ahead of Michigan State.” Strong statement with no wiggle room at all. NO justification. No JUSTIFICATION. Wow. Really? I had previously held Greenburg in high esteem and believed him informed, but when he stated unequivocally there was “no justification” for Bama ahead of MSU, I just had to see for myself. Here’s how went about my layman’s view of the game.

First, I looked at the ESPN Power Index. Hey Bama is number 2! But then I remembered that this is the same power index that three weeks ago had Baylor 1 and TCU 2. 

So I looked at the records. Both teams had identical records of 12-1, so no help there. I thought perhaps I should see how many ranked teams they played. Wow, MSU played four great teams that finished ranked in the top 25 (Iowa, Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan). Impressive. That must be it. But wait, Alabama also played four who finished in the top 25 CFP poll (Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida)—and two more that finished ranked in other polls: Wisconsin finished in the Top 25 Coaches Poll, AP, and Power rankings and Georgia finished ranked in the Coaches Poll. So that doesn’t really give an edge to MSU. There must be more indicators somewhere. I mean, after all, Greenburg has access to lots of sports stats and data and film, right?

So let’s look at other easy stats to compare. How about points scored and given up? Bama averaged scoring 34 and MSU averaged 32 per game. Close enough but certainly no edge for MSU. Let’s look on the other side of the ball. What about who had the best scoring defense? Well, darn, that would be Bama at #3 nationally giving up only 14 points a game, against MSU ranked a very respectable #19 giving up a touchdown more at 21 a game. So if I read this right, they both played awesome schedules, but Bama scored more and gave up a touchdown fewer points per game. 

It seemed worth looking up a head-to-head match against ranked defenses, but there were no common opponents. Just for fun, I looked at how Bama performed against the number one national defense, compared to MSU against the number two national defense. Bama put 35 points on the #1 defense of Wisconsin, while MSU only dropped 17 on the number 2 defense of Ohio State. Silly comparison, I know, but interesting.

Let’s look at some defense stats to see if this is all some kind of misleading statistical error. Hmmm. Bama is #27 nationally giving up 208 rushing yards a game. Not sure about MSU, as I can’t find them in the Top 50 listing. On the defensive passing efficiency rating I also find Bama ranked high, at #4. Bama gives up 184 yards a game as 16th overall in passing yards allowed. Again, if MSU is ranked I sure don’t see them in efficiency rating or passing yards allowed.

Must be something else Greenburg based his comment on. Maybe it was the rushing defense ranking. I know MSU has great rushing D. Well, yeah there they are ranked at #7 and giving up a meager 113 yards per game. Fantastic. But wait, I see Bama at #3 and giving up only 74 yards.

So how did each team do against team that are good in the Red Zone. Maybe that’s the key. Nope, apparently not. I find that Bama played against 4 of the top 10 nationally ranked Red Zone defenses, while MSU played only 1 out of the top 25 according to the NCAA database.

Maybe we should look at it differently. Some say that the SEC was really down this year, so maybe Bama didn’t play many good defenses. Let’s look. It says here in the NCAA official stats that Bama played the number 1 defense (Wisconsin), 3 of the top 10 defenses, and 9 of the top 50. MSU played the number 2 defense (Ohio State) and 7 of the Top 50. Edge to Bama again. I’m beginning to run out of things to give MSU an edge, but I’ll keep looking.

What about games played against Top 50 offenses? Maybe that’s it. Well, no, I looked and each team played six ranked in the top 50.

What about the records of teams they each played? I know MSU had a few awesome matchups. So here’s how it stacks up. If My math is right (I just added it in my head), MSU teams went 90-68 overall, while Bama opponents went 100-56. Edge to Bama again I suppose. But who had the most dogs on their schedule? Well, I see on the MSU schedule teams that won 2, 3, 4, and 5 games in their losing seasons, and 8 of 13 teams MSU played won only 7 or fewer games. In contrast, Bama played only one team with a losing record (with 2 wins) and only 4 of 13 Bama opponents won 7 or fewer games.

On top of that I’m not sure how to factor in that Bama has D. Henry, a leading Heisman candidate. Henry ran for right at 2,000 yards, setting an SEC record for most yards in a season over such modern era Heisman-winning SEC running backs as George Rogers, Herschel Walker, Bo Jackson and Mark Ingram. And this after he ran for more yards in high school than all the thousands and thousands of high school running backs in the entire history of the game. And I won’t harp on a coach who has won three national championships in the last six years and four in 12 years.

I guess, after all is said and done, perhaps the CFP committee got it right. I’m not claiming Bama will win. I’m not saying MSU isn’t a great team. But I’m saying to you Bama haters that need to get your facts straight next time and just let the players decide this thing on the field.

May the best team win.

Philip Shirley
Bama ’75, ‘77