Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Washington Huskies: An Historic Matchup

Historic Rematch

For those who don’t remember the birth of Alabama’s soon-to-be century of setting the standard for achievement in college football, you should go back and read about Alabama’s win that resulted in its first national championship…1926 against Washington in the Rose Bowl. Bama, as a huge underdog, won the game 20-19 under Coach Wallace Wade and with the great play of the famous Johnny Mack Brown. Brown, from my hometown Dothan, Alabama, was a halfback known as the Dothan Antelope. He went on to a long film career in westerns with such actors as Mary Pickford and John Wayne.

Bama’s biggest threats from Washington

You have to go back ten years to really understand the threat from Coach Chris Petersen, who made Boise State a household name and synonymous with playing up to the competition. In the 2007 Fiesta Bowl where he coached Boise State against Oklahoma, Peterson demonstrated not only how David can slay Goliath, he showed he has a brilliant offensive mind and ice water in his veins. He has no fear. With 7 seconds to go and behind by 7, he called a hook and ladder play where wideouts crossed in the middle of the field. The left WR caught the ball mid-field and tossed it to the crossing right WR who scored.

When Oklahoma scored on the first play of OT, Boise came back with a drive but was down to fourth and two. They called  halfback pass to score and then decided to go for two. This was the famous Statue of Liberty play I had only seen on a playground or high school before. It worked. All three of these plays showed that Peterson is a cool head under pressure and coaches his teams to perform to perfection.

When you pair the tendency of all four Bama runners (counting QB Hurts) to fumble with the very positive turnover ratio of Washington, you may find Bama’s second biggest risk. The Huskies lead the major conference teams in turnover margin. Two fumbles at the wrong time to a team that can pass and run negate a 14-point advantage in a hurry.

Washington also spreads the field with four receivers, led by WR John Ross. Ross has scored multiple TDs in six games. With the loss of safety Eddie Jackson and now LB Shaun Dion Hamilton who could help in slot coverage a little, coupled with injuries to Humphrey at CB and Toni Brown’s pulled muscle, our once excellent secondary has been exposed a couple of times. It will be critical for Brown and Humphrey to be healed by game time. Washington's upset chances probably rest on the outstretched arms of tall receivers having success over the average-height Bama secondary.

Prediction: If Bama is without any two of the group of Humphrey, Brown, Fitzpatrick and Harrison--and Washington completes a few downfield passes--Bama is likely at risk to lose. If all Bama secondary defenders are playing close to 100% Bama will win.

The other niggling worry for me is the Red Zone, where Washington has an edge. The Huskies score 93% of the time—and 74% are touchdowns! Bama, on the other hand only scores 88% of the time and its touchdown ratio is only 61%. Perhaps the saving grace for Bama is this: in 13 games teams have only reached the Red Zone 20 times.

Washington RB Myles Gaskin give the Huskies a running threat, even from the spread formation and provides balance. QB Jake Browning leads the Power Five with 42 TD passes. His efficiency rating is great and he will be a challenge. Bama must have its backup secondary ready to play and must be good from starters through the dime package, which we will see often. The biggest question mark is the dime back, with Brown moving from Dime to Nickel after Jackson was injured. While the talent is there and is not the issue, the shuffling of backs has caused broken coverage on a couple of plays that burned Bama. Think back to the missing safety over the top for the wide open touchdown in the SEC championship game, after Minkah moved up to CB on the play.

I’ve noticed several commentaries that referred to a weak non-conference Washington schedule, but in a review of the top 35 in the strength of schedule ratings I see both Bama and Washington played 8 teams that finished in the top 35 for SOS. For Bama: #5 USC, #6 LSU, #8 Auburn, #14 Ole Miss, #16 Fla, #17 TAMU, #25 Arkansas, and #26 Tennessee. Washington: also #5 USC, #9 Colorado, #13 Stanford, # 23 WSU, #24 Oregon, #29 Cal, #31 Utah, and #35 Oregon State. The Washington schedule may be not be as weak as many would assume.

Why Bama can win

The biggest factor to me is the fact that Humphrey appears, from press reports, to be “full go” in practice. His Iron Bowl injury will have had time to heal.  Also, Toni Brown’s pulled muscle doesn’t seem to have him worried about playing, based on his own comments. Brown also appears to be improving and has two INTs in the past three games. 

As I often say, comparing head to head matchups is a road to ruin for forecasting, but is fun and interesting. The teams had Southern Cal in common. Bama won 52-6 and stunned the USC team that had such high expectations. It took USC a few games to recover and it finished with a nine-game winning streak that included a 26-13 road win over Washington—its only loss. So the casual observer would say Bama has an edge by scoring 52 with a freshman QB (split duties actually) on a defense Washington only managed 13 against. But each game has its own dynamics, so don’t put too much stock in that comparison.

The other factor and the one I put most faith in is Bama's ability to pressure Jake Browning. USC brought the pressure and Browning only completed 47% of his passes. If Washington has one unit that is a bit below the others it appears to be offensive line. Browning was also very slowed by Utah, so the two of the better defenses they faced had much success against him. I believe this is Alabama’s most important edge against Washington. If Minkah or Humphrey or Brown can stay on WR Ross, giving Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams one extra second to get to the QB consistently, then Bama wins. If the Tide knocks him down five times and sack him twice, and perhaps gets one INT, Bama should win.

Comparison by the numbers looks even

A straight comparison of numbers reveals two good teams performing at a high level and without any overwhelming advantages. The Huskies average 477 yards a game to Bama’s near-tie at 471. The Huskies score slightly more at 44.5 vs. Bama’s 41 point average, but Bama gives up only 12 to the very good Huskie average opponent scores of about 17.

The Huskies pass more (average 267 yards a game to Bama’s 224), but Bama rushes more (247 to 210). Bama rushes on average about one foot more at 5.8 per rush to 5.5. One interesting difference is that the average completion for Washington is 15 yards to Bama’s 8 yards. But both teams make seven yards per play average overall.

On kick returns Washington gains two yards more at 21 vs. 19, but Bama has 8 yards fewer penalties per game.

Both teams average 31 minutes time of possession.

Bama has a slight edge in punting of about 9 yards net, which could matter in this game.

On the defensive side the similarities continue. Both teams allow third down conversions about 30% of the time. Bama has a few more sacks and many more yards on sacks at 45 for 370 vs. 37 for 218.

Bama does keep opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone to 35%, while opponents of Washington score TDs 55%. Slight edge to Bama, worth perhaps three or four points.

Another Bama edge could be these two stats: Bama allows opponents only 248 yards total and 64 on the ground, while Washington allows 316  yards and 123 on the ground. Both are good stats, but Bama’s are superior. Edge to the Tide of a touchdown.

The Pick

While I can see Washington giving Bama fits if the secondary is not well and well-prepared, I think it will be healed. Bama’s D line will wear down the Washington O Line and create opportunities as the game goes on. Washington has an odd habit of scoring most points in the first quarter and declining point production is each quarter (169 in Q1, then 159, 131,and 112). Bama is more evenly spread and does well in Q3, which could built momentum for a strong finish.

If Bama can jam all receivers but Ross at the line and run with Ross, then the passing production for Washington will be below par for them as Allen and crew keep the QB on the run. Bama will stop the run game as it has Foster to run with any back, even in a spread offense.

With a month to prepare and two coaches who know Washington/Petersen (Kiffin and his new replacement know the Washington offense and the players), Bama may see Hurts with a few more tools to use. He has a freshman year behind him and could advance a little with this month to prepare.

I predict a somewhat scary game for Bama, but in the end the Tide should pull away. Even possibly making the score look comfortable, I don't think it will be a very comfortable win and the final second of the game will be very welcome for Tide fans.

Bama 38 Washington 27.