Game Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide takes on Improving MSU Bulldogs

Morning games need to start differently

I thought I'd share this memory of the morning pre-game ritual atop our hotel in Phoenix before the historic shootout between Bama and Clemson earlier this year. This will be the table fare before Mississippi State for those friends who join me before the game. The game will be in Bryant-Denny Stadium with an 11 central kickoff to be featured on ESPN.

A quick look back

Last week watching the LSU game reminded me how fickle the game can be, especially with a young QB. All year I kept saying we may see the freshman show up in one game. We did, but he is so talented he overcame his own weaknesses, with help from an incredible defense. Here's the final paragraph from last week that now looks accurate: All said and done, I see the Tide winning in close a game that is never out of reach for either team. Bama should be careful with the ball. Final score sees Bama  pulling away late by 10.

The match-up against the the Bulldogs

On paper, this match-up looks fair at first glance. Bama comes off a week when it held LSU to 125 yards of offense so its defense is primed. The Mississippi State Bulldogs come off an impressive upset of then number 4 in the playoff rankings Texas A&M, 35-28. They are a team that is starting to figure it out in this rebuilding year without Dak. They are young, and I see good things ahead for them.

Bama has scored 35 touchdowns this season to the Dogs' 33. Both average 219 yards a game in the air. Both are top 30 nationally on the ground, with Bama only slightly ahead as #11 in the NCAA at 259 yards a game to the 227 of MSU, ranking them #27.

Bama games about six and a half yards per play to their six yards. Bama averages 479 yards in total offense to the 446 of MSU.

The Dogs have 10 interceptions to Bama's 9. Both teams have 4 field goals over 30 yards and 2 over 40.

Both teams have a first-year QB who is getting better as the season progresses. Last week, Nick Fitzgerald threw for 209 yards and rushed for 192 and two TDs. Hurts made a critical run to put Bama ahead in a tight game.

In addition to an improving QB who's a decent passer, the Dogs have a very fine receiver in All-SEC Fred Ross who provides a good target and leadership.

It also levels the playing field a bit to have Bo Scarborough a bit gimpy from a bad knee, along with starting guard Alphonse Taylor perhaps missing in action again and his replacement Lester Cotton injured--forcing Joshua Carter to practice this week with the first team. No formal reports yet on the status of these three injured players, though I suspect we will see Bo and Lester at least a few plays.

The differences

Once we pass some obvious similarities, we can begin to find indicators that Bama should have a clear edge. The most obvious is that MSU has five losses, including losses to South Alabama, Kentucky (reminder: Bama beat the Cats 34-6), and BYU. One of their four wins was Samford, who still scored 41 in the loss.

It could also be meaningful that 3 of the 4 losses for the Dogs were on the road.

On the positive side for MSU, it's worth noting that their losses include close ones by 1, 3, 7 and 2. So if three or four plays went the other way, this 4-5 team could easily be 6-3, 7-2 or even 8-1. Kentucky needed a last-second, 51-yard field goal to beat them. Only Auburn beat them more than a touchdown. It's also worth noting that Fitzgerald seems to be finally coming into his own as a seasoned QB. The first six games he led them to a 25 point average, while the last three games they scored at 43 points a clip. He had a couple of impressive, hard-nosed runs.

But the positives for Bama to be able to stop the Dogs are in place. Nick has been running for an average of over 100 yards a game. What will happen when Bama stops him? Will the offense collapse? Perhaps.

Other signs of weakness are there. UMASS is 2-8 now and was ahead deep into the third quarter.

Very telling is the fact that Mississippi State is ranked a lowly 104 in the NCAA in passing defense and has given up 21 touchdowns in the air. For perspective on that this means, consider the Kentucky QB (on a running team) who averaged 80 yards passing against Alabama, Vandy, and Georgia, but who put up 292 against the Dogs.

Bama's secondary proved last week that it can get the job done without Eddie Jackson. The shift of Minkah Fitzpatrick to safety for Eddie Jackson (alongside Ronnie Harrison), with Averette and Humphrey at corner and Tony Brown coming in at the nickel position, imakes for a very formidable secondary.

Bama's continues to dominate the defensive line and remains #1 in NCAA in rushing defense by allowing 66 rushing yards. MSU is unranked. Bama is #2 in scoring defense, allowing only 13 points. If my math is right, MSU gives up right at 30.

The Bama D also has 37 sacks for 300 yards compared with the MSU 19 sacks and 135 yards.

Against the run, the Tide has stopped 9 of the SEC top 20 runners, having held in check the RBs rated #2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 13, 15, 16, and 20. Bama is tied for third nationally in fewest first downs allowed with 122. MSU, by comparison, is somewhere worse than 180 when the rankings were cut off.

On the offensive side, Bama shows a nice edge. Bama scores on average 41 and MSU 31. Bama has made 11 of 17 field goals for 65% to the 60% (9/15) for MSU. Add in 9 defensive TDs for the Bama defense to only 3 for MSU.

Bama has four guys ranked in the SEC top 25 rushers, while MSU  has none in the top 34 listed by the SEC.

The bottom line

It feels like things line up for Bama to win big. Coming home will be good, while MSU goes on the road where it doesn't typically do well. Both teams come off a hard, emotional game, but MSU had an upset--which often leads to a let-down. If Bama guards against complacency they should suffer no let-down. The comments from the team before and after LSU seemed to indicate they were all business, level-headed and focused. I believe Eddie Jackson will be in the locker room contributing the only way he can--with great advice and help staying focused.

I see no reason why Bama will not reach its typical average in the 40s and perhaps go high in the 40s. MSU will not reach its 30-point average, so there is separation of two or three touchdowns there. I believe that the loss of third-down conversions will occur for MSU when the QB is contained and I think he will be. Bama will hit about 50% on its third-down conversions (it averaged 48% anyway) due to weaknesses it will find in the D line.

I didn't initially see what the odds makers were seeing in a 28-point spread, but I'm starting to think that MSU's offense will sputter. I'm not laying a big bet but I do see Bama leading from the first quarter and never being threatened. I might risk a small fun bet only. Final score: Bama 44/MSU 13.

Running Tally of Predictions

Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined)

Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20 Actual: Bama 48. Ole Miss 43 

Prediction: Bama 59/Kent State 0. Actual: Bama 49- KS 0 (not bad)

Prediction: Bama 49/Kentucky 7 Actual: Bama 38-Kentucky 6 (not bad again)

Prediction: Bama 36/Arkansas 21 Actual: Bama 49-Arkansas 30 (close on the spread, and won ATS)

Prediction: Bama 38/Tennessee 21 Actual: Bama 49/Tennessee 10 (I'll take it. Won ATS.)

Prediction: Bama 34/TA&M 20 Actual: Bama 33/TAMU 14

Prediction: Bama 31/LSU 21 Actual: Bama 10/LSU 0

Prediction: Bama 44/MSU 13