Analysis of the 2016 Iron Bowl: Crimson Tide takes on Auburn at home

Yikes, this game is scary
When the Tide and Tigers run onto the field at Bryant Denny for a 2:30 kickoff on November 26 it will the 81st Iron Bowl. I've lost count, but I think it might be my 20th game in person since taking my bicycle to a game in 1972 when a student at Samford and buying a student ticket for $2 and talking a gate keeper into letting me in without an ID.

That was before transferring to Alabama in 1973. And getting hooked for life on this football team. It happened to Virginia when we attended The Kick in 1985 for her first game. When that 52-yard field goal sailed through she was hooked too.

Just like that first game I attended, this game isn't a sure thing. You may recall the Dec. 1, 1972, game is known as the Punt Bama Punt game. Bama was ranked #2 in the nation and 14-point favorites. You'll recall that Bama led by 16 with ten minutes, when Shug Jordan called for a field goal and was booed when the score became 16-3. Auburn fans because it seemed a weak thing to do; Bama fans for ruining the point spread. Bama was soon forced to punt and Greg Gantt's punt was blocked and run back by David Langner. Minutes later the same Langner ran back another punt--also blocked by the same Bill Newton. Auburn won 17-16. So, anything can happen in this game.

I brought up that unfortunate history to say, forget what you may think about this Auburn team being a pushover for Bama. There is a lot to be concerned about if you are a Bama fan. Here are a few things to ponder. The offenses both gain almost the exact same yardage on average (Bama 478, Auburn 474). Each team gains about six and a half yards per play. And convert third downs at the same rate (47% Bama, 45% AU). Their defenses have given up about the same number of touchdowns (Bama 9, AU 10). They both have great run defenses ranked inside the top 20 nationally. This will easily be the best defense Bama has faced (despite the heroic effort we saw by LSU).

I'm also concerned that having Auburn's Kamryn Pettway back this week--their bruiser running back--will give them a dimension that they did not have the last two weeks and an emotional boost. Kerryon Johnson, the other RB, has also had another week to come back from his ankle sprain. Pettway is the second ranked RB in the SEC with 1106 yards despite not playing last week against a weak opponent.

Perhaps more concerning is that Auburn has Kevin Steele putting together a well-informed defense for Lane Kiffin, a man he was watched carefully and perhaps can anticipate better than most. Throw in the incentive for Auburn to gain a shot at the Sugar Bowl and put an L on Bama at the same time and we have plenty of motivation for a team once thought in total free fall after starting 1-2 and then only squeaking past LSU.

The right side of the AU line is also not to be overlooked. RT Robert Leff and RG Braden Smith are both very highly rated future NFL starters, and give their runners 3 yards before contact on almost every run to that side.The Tide's center part of its line better man up. And Reuben Foster better be able to bring down Pettway in his tracks and not going forward for three more yards.

Differences are hard to find, but there are a few small ones
While these teams tend to gain about the same yardage per play at 6.7 and 6.4, Bama has a decided edge in being more balanced. Auburn runs 70% of the time, while Bama has only 26 yards difference in its running and passing game (228 on runs, 254 passing). Auburn gains 298 yards on the ground (with 32 rushing TDs), but drops off to 176 passing yards a game.

Overall, the balance gives Bama an edge. Perhaps good for 3-6 points.

In passing, both teams complete about 65% and make on average 8 yards per play.

Another Bama edge is its performance in stopping first downs. Ranked #2 nationally and giving up only 149 first downs gives Bama a slight edge by forcing a couple of extra punts. Auburn is no slacker with a number 21 ranking and giving up only 196, but that means 3-4 more first downs average in a game so that could be a sustained drive or two for the Tide and make a  difference for Bama if it holds true. Perhaps another 3-7 points difference.

Bama also averages more sacks with nearly 4  to just over 2, so perhaps one more drive stopped?

Auburn allows 217 yards in the air and 118 on the ground. While that run D is #17 in the nation and very good, is doesn't match Bama at #1 in the nation allowing 69 yards on the ground. Pare that with Bama allowing only an average of 184 in the air.. And that stat is not slanted due to cupcake games. Bama has not allowed more than 114 on the ground in any game. Overall this is perhaps the biggest edge for Bama--total D. That should make for one more drive, again 3-7 points.

More sameness
As I've often noted, comparing scores against common foes is dangerous. But it's fun and entertaining to do so. Against Ole Miss, Bama slipped by on the road with a huge comeback and scored 48. Auburn had them at home and scored 40, with a win by 12. Both teams' LSU games were similar (Bama won 10-0 and AU won 18-13--though the Tide was on the road at night in BR). Still, about the same outcome. The Tigers scored 38 on MSU on the road and won by a comfortable 24. The Tide won at home by 48. Bama put 49 on Arkansas on the road but gave up 30. Auburn whipped them at home by 53.  Generally, I see not much of a difference here and more suggestion that these two teams will be fairly evenly matched with great defenses and very good offensive production.

Why Bama can win
Auburn has played five games where decent defenses kept Auburn scoring in check:
- 13 against Clemson (L)
- 16 against TAMU (L)
- 18 vs. LSU (close W)
- 23 on Vandy (close W)
- 7 on Georgia (L)

Compare that with Bama scoring under 31 only one time--10-0 at LSU. And lay that alongside these low scores team manage against Bama's defense  (other than the 43 scored by Ole Miss): 6, 10, 0, 6, 30, 10, 14, 0, 3, 3.

Other reasons you Bama fans can be hopeful include the question marks for Auburn. Are injuries lingering at running back and quarterback? What about the things Bama learned from Kirby Smart to stop Auburn in its tracks? And let's assume that Hurts will give Bama a dimension missing in many close games between these two. In a close game where the QB is the difference, Hurts is the horse to bet on.

Perhaps most of all, I'm very happy Coach Saban had a clear example from last week to show why complacency can damage a team's effectiveness. While the score doesn't show it entirely, last week this team underperformed. Coach was angry on the outside and smiling on the inside. His team needed that reminder as they enter this final leg of Iron Bowl, SEC and playoffs.

When I add up the small differences, there are enough to make up a difference of 9-20 points. I'm picking the middle ground of 16 and keeping my betting money in my pocket this week. I think Bama will not likely reach its average of 41, so I'm going with 31-15.

Running Tally of Predictions

Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined)

Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20 Actual: Bama 48. Ole Miss 43 

Prediction: Bama 59/Kent State 0. Actual: Bama 49- KS 0 (not bad)

Prediction: Bama 49/Kentucky 7 Actual: Bama 38-Kentucky 6 (not bad again)

Prediction: Bama 36/Arkansas 21 Actual: Bama 49-Arkansas 30 (close on the spread, and won ATS)

Prediction: Bama 38/Tennessee 21 Actual: Bama 49/Tennessee 10 (I'll take it. Won ATS.)

Prediction: Bama 34/TA&M 20 Actual: Bama 33/TAMU 14

Prediction: Bama 31/LSU 21 Actual: Bama 10/LSU 0

Prediction: Bama 44/MSU 13 Actual: Bama 51 MSU 3 (decent forecast. Won ATS)

Prediction: Bama 51/Mocs 3 Actual: Bama 31/Mocs 3 

Prediction: Bama 31/Auburn 15