Alabama Takes on Resurgent LSU Tigers: Can LSU "Dominate" like they claim

Will LSU's voodoo work this time around with a night game in Baton Rouge? 

Last week the analysis proved accurate and I'll give it an A on the prediction. This week was much harder. The stats say Bama by two or three scores, but the momentum of LSU says different. If you believe the team and its coach, the season started over when Miles left. And the scores of 42-7, 45-10 and 38-21 over the past three weeks of the Coach Ed Orgeron era suggest that may be true. It certainly made me worry about the stats being irrelevant. The team feels like it is 3-0. I tend to believe them.

With LSU's revived offense and the return of Leonard Fournette, I had to take a look at how Bama might handle that running game that so decimated Ole Miss. And don't overlook the fact that Guice gains 8 yards a carry for LSU--the same as Fournette. This was one of the two games I circled prior to the season as the place we might see Bama suffer a loss, as I expected not to pass the gauntlet of a terrible October stretch unfazed with three away games at LSU, Tennessee and LSU, with TAMU in the middle. The other one I circled as a possible loss was Tennessee. Oops.

First a disclaimer: I pulled some of the stats herein before Saturday and didn't have time to update them all. But they are still good general indicators.

Bama has played the top teams in the conference in terms of offensive yards per game. These
.team follow Bama in output, of course, since the Tide is number one in SEC and #17 NCAA with 498 yards per game total offense in a very balanced attack:

#2, Ole Miss
#3 TAMU
#6 Arkansas
#7 Tennessee

And Southern Cal is beginning to emerge as a decent team and is a top 40 rushing team in the nation with 300 yards a game on the ground. AFter a 1-3 start, they've reeled off four wins to get to 5-3. So that all gives us context for Saturday as the Tide takes on  the SEC #9-ranked offense of LSU at 424 yards per game. To me, that's about one long drive difference with Bama's output of nearly 500 yards--putting the game at about the 7-point spread of Vegas.

The rushing stats also tell us a bit of what to expect, as the ground game will be the LSU hope for success. Here's the ranking prior to Saturday of teams Bama faced and where it fits in:

  -Auburn on top with 303 per game rushing
  -Bama next with 265
  -TAMU with 252
  -LSU with 240
  -Kentucky with 219
  -Southern Cal 204
  -Arkansas at 160
  -Tennessee gaining 170

LSU SR. DWAYNE THOMAS: "...we're just going to dominate this game."

So here's the skinny for LSU to contemplate as they think about dominating Bama as they have so famously claimed in true locker-room trash talk for great bulletin board material: Bama has not given up more than 62 yards to any running back.

And that's after the Tide played the guy who is #4 in the SEC and #17 NCAA Rawleigh Williams of Arkansas, with over a hundred a game average. He ran over Ole Miss with 180 and surpassed 120 four times before gaining only 46 on Bama. Bama held TAMU's Keith Ford to 62.  And The Aggies Traveon Williams had 127 on Auburn, then 217 on Tennessee--and followed that the next week with, guess what, 23 on Bama. Even Kentucky with not one but two backs in the top 8 could only gain 60 together. The #3 Stanley Williams of the Wildcats put 180 on NMS, 123 on South Carolina and followed it with 22 on Bama.

Domination? By LSU? With the same Heisman hopeful that gained 31 on Bama last year? I would never disparage a great kid like Fournette. He's a truly elite athlete and will likely do better against the Tide this time. He's big, fast and confident right now. And healthy again. But I'm not seeing domination. Maybe I'm missing something. And perhaps Orgeron is better at offense than the Mad Hatter. And perhaps only the last three games count if we want to anticipate this LSU team. And perhaps I really can dance on the head of a pin with a thousand angels. Yes they can win, no they will not be dancing a domination celebration.

So why should Bama fans be confident?

First, you shouldn't be overconfident. This will be a slug  fest. They can run the ball. They recruit very well. And their losses were by only 2 to a good Wisconsin team and by 5 to a good Auburn team. Fournette is likely one of the three or four best running backs in the nation.

But the numbers do suggest a small Bama edge:  Bama outgains LSU 498 to 424 a game. Bama passes 233 yards per game vs. the Tigers' 184. Bama rushes for about 25 yards a game more. And importantly, Bama scores on average 44 points to the 30 of LSU.

Opponents records tell us a little: LSU opponents that they beat are 17-19 overall. Counting the overall schedule they are only 27-23, and the two teams that beat LSU have lost two games each. Bama's opponents, by contrast, are a respectable 38-25 before Saturday.

Bama's red zone defense has given up only two rushing TDs and only three total all year. Perhaps Dwayne Thomas missed that stat.

As a rushing defense, LSU ranks well at #11 in the nation giving up 104 yards. But, again, edge to Bama ranked #1 and yielding only 70 yards on the ground.

Both teams punt ok, though Bama makes about five yards more. Both return kicks okay though Bama gains just over 21 to the 18 of LSU.

As this is often a close game, the kicking could matter. Bama is only 10 of 15 in field goals, while LSU is 5 of 7. But 3 of those were under 30 yards and only one was beyond 40, so perhaps a wash?

On defense, Bama has 32 sacks to the LSU 20. And here is a stat that has me baffled for its implications. Bama has 209 assisted tackles, while LSU has a whopping 348. Does that mean they swarm to the ball? Or does it mean LSU guys can't bring down anyone by themselves? Bama has 304 solo tackles to their 225, so I'm thinking they need two or more guys to bring down the runner 3 of 5 times. Bama holds opponents to 2.2 yards per carry because the first guy there brings the runner down 3 of 5 times.

On offense, there is not much that jumps out other than Bama passing more. Both teams gain about 13 yards per reception, but Bama throws it more. LSU has about a two foot edge in distance per carry (6.7 vs. 6).  Bama completes 64% to only 59% for LSU.

The FPI says Bama is number one, due somewhat to winning 7 of 8 games by 19 points or more.

All said and done, I see the Tide winning in close a game that is never out of reach for either team. Bama should be careful with the ball. Final score sees Bama  pulling away late by 10.

RUNNING TALLY OF SEASON PREDICTIONS:

Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined this)
Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20 Actual: Bama 48. Ole Miss 43 (should have been 36 and a 12 point spread)

Prediction: Bama 59/Kent State 0. Actual: Bama 49- KS 0 (not bad)

Prediction: Bama 49/Kentucky 7 Actual: Bama 38-Kentucky 6 (not bad again)

Prediction: Bama 36/Arkansas 21 Actual: Bama 49-Arkansas 30 (close on the spread, and won ATS)

Prediction: Bama 38/Tennessee 21 Actual: Bama 49/Tennessee 10 (I'll take it. Won ATS.)

Prediction: Bama 34/TA&M 20 Actual: Bama 33/TAMU 14

Prediction: Bama 31/LSU 21