Week 3 of an October Football Gauntlet: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Before I start my analysis of the game, let me say a couple of things about Texas A&M. There are two things I like about the school. First, it was a stopping off point for Bear Bryant where he took a floundering program's players into the drought of the desert--The Junction Boys as we know them--and learned lessons about turning boys into men that would lead him to several national championship seasons at Alabama when Momma called him home. And second, they sneaked Dennis Franchione away from Bama in the night after Alabama helped him to a rare (for him) 10-win season and a year later offered a ten-year contract extension worth $15 million. Franchione had stated clearly that he would stay, then didn't even have the decency to return and face his players to say he was leaving. He did it by video conference. Really, Dennis? That's your way to teach young men about responsibility? Thus, he earned his name Franocchio from my friend John L. Thanks A&M for bringing him in to coach his way to 16-18 in his first three years and then firing him a couple of years later. Thanks for saving us from this lying, bumbling joke. There, I finally got that off my chest.

Now, what can we expect this weekend? The Tide and Aggies will kick it off in Tuscaloosa at 2:30, with CBS coverage. IT's Bama's one home game in a four-game October nightmare of Arkansas, Tennessee, TA&M and LSU.

First, I don't like the parallels with 2012. In case you don't remember the specifics, Bama was #1 and the Aggies were #15. You can bet that coaches will be reminding the Aggies of that game. After Johnny Manziel used his sandlot brand of quarterbacking that Coach Saban couldn't predict well enough to stop, Bama lost 29-24 on a late pass play after a mad scramble and nice throw. Of course, most folks have forgotten Bama came right back and was driving to score when it was picked off on the goal line on an unnecessary pass with 1:30 left. A repeat under similar circumstances isn't impossible against Bama. Just ask Ole Miss.

So what are some of the big factors that could influence this game. First, this will be the 14th time for the Aggies to face a #1 since entering the SEC. Intimidation is not as likely as it could be with some teams. So Bama fans should hope the noise is disruptive, at least.

Injuries could be a modest factor. Alphonse Taylor is still day to day from his concussion, so Bama's line could be thin. However, he didn't play last week at Tennessee and that game went well, so Lester Cotton is ready and has been with the first team for two weeks.

One big factor will be that Aggie DEs Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall are equal matches to Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson. This could be the pass rush that Hurts has not seen. I'm curious how it may negatively impact some of the zone reads that have left the corners open for a QB run.

Comparison of teams played is dangerous and only mentioned here for fun. It appears Bama and TA&M  have played similar seasons. We played USC, they played UCLA. Bama played Kent State, the Aggies played Prairie View. Bama played Kentucky, they played South Carolina. Bama played Ole Miss, they played Auburn. We both played Arkansas and Tennessee. More on those later....

Another factor that will be negative for the Tide. I predict that this is the week the non-offensive scoring streak stops. I do think the Tide will get a turnover, but by definition all streaks come to an end. The defense will need a critical stop or turnover at some point, but I think it's time for the offense to create its own firepower and momentum.

A central factor in this game will probably  be the 274 average yards per game (#7 in the NCAA) for the Aggies banging up against the Tide Defensive wall that yields only 64 yards a game on the ground (#1 in the NCAA). The Aggie zone read has been awesome on the ground and their QB is playing like a seasoned veteran making good reads based on what the defensive end is doing or if the Mike LB is on a stunt. Bama's D line and linebackers better be very disciplined or we will see a few explosive plays on the ground. We will see the ball sailed down the field a few times, but they are much more likely to have an explosive play on the ground. Aggies RB Trayveon Williams has the best stats in the conference with 117 yards a game.

Fortunately for the Tide, when the ball goes the other way, another big difference shows up as Bama gains 266 yards (also ranked high at #10 NCAA) against the Aggies who average giving up 159 yards a game--a middling #69 nationally. If turnovers not a factor, these two trench wars will settle the game. And it could be a couple of scores in Bama's favor based on the revamped Tide D. When the zone read gave Bama trouble a few years ago with Gus and Cam and other fast-ball teams, we saw much faster DEs and Jack linebackers being recruited by Coach Saban and it has dramatically reduced the effectiveness of that style offense against the Tide. IT needs to pay off this week.

When you look at scoring averages, Bama shows only a slight edge at a 45 point per game average to the TA&M 40 point average. Just for fun, I recalculated the scoring averages for both teams based on my admittedly unscientific formula, but one with some armchair logic I think. I dropped the 67-0 from the Aggies-Prairie View game and the 48-0 from the Bama-Kent State games as part of my calculation. Then I also used the 35 points A&M scored against Tennessee in regulation. Those averages show Bama still at 45 points per game, but A&M drops to 31. That margin seems more likely to me, though I have a hard time seeing the Aggies scoring 31 against a defense that has allowed 0, 6 twice, 10 twice, 30 (at Arkansas), and 43 (at Ole Miss). That revised average score seems representative of what is more likely, and actually a bit high based on Bama having unquestionably the best defense they will have faced. So take off another, what 10 or so?

In many ways, the teams show little separation. Bama rushes for 266 to their 274. Bama's total offense is 505 to the Aggies' 533. Bama punts for 47 versus the TA&M 44. Each team has 7 sacks and great rush off the ends. Kick and punt returns show little margin for either. Bama has more sacks at 27, but the Aggies have a respectable 19. Both kick field goals well and have multiple 40-yard+ scores. Each is penalized about 50 yards a game. Both convert in the Red Zone in the low 80% range. Both get about a turnover a game edge. Both are in top 20 in scoring defense (Bama #8 at 15 points a game and TA&M #22 at 19 points yielded per game.)

We have two teams in common: Tennessee and Arkansas. Arkansas shed little light. Both Bama and the Aggies scored in the high 40-s and won by similar scores (TA&M by 21, Bama by 19). The Tennessee game could give Bama fans reason for optimism. First, Bama won by a lopsided 49-10. The Aggies won 45-38 in double overtime. So they gave up 35 to Tennessee in regulation, to Bama's 10. Tennessee gained only 163 against Bama, while they gained 684 against TA&M. Edge to the Bama defense.

Here's a quick side-by-side rundown of a few key stats that look important to me:
Rushing D: Bama gives up only 64 average a game vs. 159
Passing D: Bama gives up 210 vs. Aggies 278
Total D: Bama allows 274 vs. Aggies 438
Scoring: Bama allows 15 vs. Aggies 19

When all is said and done, the passing D for the Aggies, which is worst in the conference, is hard to get past when we look at Calvin Ridley, OJ Howard, and ArDarius Stewart all healthy. I think it is the key factor and game difference giving the Tide the win by at least 14. If the crowd gets into the QB head, it could go higher.

RUNNING TALLY OF SEASON PREDICTIONS:
Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined this)
Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20 Actual: Bama 48. Ole Miss 43 (should have been 36 and a 12 point spread)

Prediction: Bama 59/Kent State 0. Actual: Bama 49- KS 0 (not bad)

Prediction: Bama 49/Kentucky 7 Actual: Bama 38-Kentucky 6 (not bad again)

Prediction: Bama 36/Arkansas 21 Actual: Bama 49-Arkansas 30 (close on the spread, and won ATS)

Prediction: Bama 38/Tennessee 21 Actual: Bama 49/Tennessee 10 (I'll take it. Won ATS.)

Prediction: Bama 34/TA&M 20