The Crimson Tide in Week 2 of a Murderous October vs. Tennessee Volunteers

When Butch Jones runs onto the field in Neyland Stadium this Saturday, October 15, 2016, at 2:30 central time to take on the Crimson Tide, it will be his toughest test of the year.  In my preseason contemplation, I felt that with a new quarterback and a rebuilding O line Bama would lose at least one game, perhaps two. And looking at the schedule, that loss or two would come in the stretch of four games starting in October with a road trip to Arkansas (survived that but not without exposure of a few secondary coverage issues), followed by the Tennessee road trip, home for A&M and back on the road for LSU. Whew. Tough stretch. I picked Tennessee and circled that as a loss.

Fortunately, we find Tennessee not playing up to the potential I saw, without a true quality win. Remember, they started the season by taking it to OT against Appalachian State to win by scoring only 20. Yes, they beat Florida, but remember that's a team with no quality wins and which struggled to beat Vandy 13-6. And Tennessee beat Georgia with a Hail Mary that would not have been close enough had there not been a celebration penalty on the Georgia score to go ahead.

I'm hesitant to ever underestimate a team and the Vols are rated 9th in the nation so someone believes in them. And they have come back from a deep hole to win so they are both resilient and talented. This will not be an easy, cake walk for the Tide. This Tennessee bunch is a team that has heart--with comebacks of 13 against Appalachian State, 21 over Florida, 17 against Georgia, and was behind 28-7 against Texas A&M before going into OT. They are not afraid to compete and they play to the last down. Do not underestimate them.

Bads news for the Vols is that they are beat up at this point, with center Dylan Wiesman doubtful and Jashon Robertson on the O line seems to be out as well. On the Defensive side things may be worse. Corner Cam Sutton is out and LB Jalen Reeves-Sutton is likely out. Three other backups at LB are also out or unlikely. Really bad news, especially when combined with star defensive tackle Danny O'Brien being dismissed for something not officially announced, but reported to be his second failed drug test.

Their best news that could be a real factor in the game is the return of RB Jalen Hurd, injured against Georgia and who didn't play against TA&M. He ran for 1200+ yards last year as a sophomore.

An interesting footnote will be to watch former Bama RB Alvin Kamara, who has made a place for himself at Tennessee in a backfield with talented QB Joshua Dobbs and 6'4", 240 pound Jalen Hurd. If Hurd is in, look for Kamara to perhaps play a bit at receiver. He's too good not to use somewhere.

Keys to a win for the Tide: Figure out where Vol DE Derek Barnett is lined up and go the other way. He is perhaps the best DE in the nation and is always a factor. He is a true beast and an incredible talent rarely seen. Keep him from adding much to his 5 sack total (4th in SEC) and Bama could move the ball consistently against this depleted defense. And with O'Brien gone that really helps. On the other side of the ball, try to keep Dobbs on the run, but contained behind the line. Bama has 24 sacks (versus the Vols only 9), which could be important. Bama also has 6 INTs, with 3 as runbacks for TDs. The Vols have no runbacks, but do have 5 INTs.

And Run Run Run against this defense that is 10th in the SEC against the run, giving up 183 a game. Bama averages 237 on the ground and could surpass that number this week. Compare with the 193 average of Tennessee and Bama's tendency to give up fewer than a hundred and you may find the key to the game and a couple of touchdowns difference. Neyland will be loud and proud, so a running game that doesn't require much communication at the line could be helpful to quiet the crowd and avoid false starts. The Vols have had trouble holding onto the ball, so the Tide will be putting special emphasis on stripping the ball and it could be a factor, but not one I would count on as Tennessee always brings its best game to this weekend year in and year out.

The passing game seems similar, with Bama having only a 13 yard average per game edge, and with fewer TD passes. Both teams make about 13 yards per reception.

I see little else to create an edge, though Bama has an 11 yard per punt return advantage and that might add up to a field goal difference. The Vols have only made 5 of 7 field goals, and nothing over 39 yards. Perhaps a small edge to Bama with 8 of 11 and a 48-yard long kick.

In pure production, all stats point to Bama. 45 points average against 34; 253 yards passing to 240; and perhaps most important Bama's 237 yard rushing average against 193.

Bottom line, I'm seeing two TDs and a field goal difference as long as turnovers stay in Bama's favor, so Bama by 17.

RUNNING TALLY OF SEASON PREDICTIONS:
Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined this)
Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20 Actual: Bama 48. Ole Miss 43 (should have been 36 and a 12 point spread)

Prediction: Bama 59/Kent State 0. Actual: Bama 49- KS 0 (not bad)

Prediction: Bama 49/Kentucky 7 Actual: Bama 38-Kentucky 6 (not bad again)

Prediction: Bama 36/Arkansas 21 Actual: Bama 49-Arkansas 30 (close on the spread)

Prediction: Bama: 38/Tennessee 21