Analysis of Alabama Crimson Tide Football vs. Arkansas Razorbacks 2016

When the Hogs and the Crimson Tide kick if off around 6 p.m. Saturday, October 8, at Razorback Field in Fayetteville, most of the informed eyes will be watching to see the matchup between the big Offensive line of the Hogs and the Tide D Line. The Hogs are rushing for right at 200 yards per game (197 a game to be precise), but the Tide has been allowing only 68 yards. If there are not odd factors such as extra turnovers leading to multiple scores, blocked kicks or kickoff runbacks, this game should come down to what happens in the trenches.

When Bama has the ball it may get a boost from the return of ArDarius Stewart, who was reported to be practicing full speed and  the possible return of Damien Harris to 100%.With Jacobs getting his first start last week and stepping up for a 100-yard game, the Tide RB situation seems solid.

By this time of year most teams have stats that include a couple of challenging games and a couple of overmatched opponents, so we can begin to make some meaningful comparisons that help us play out certain game scenarios. Arkansas has one quality win, against TCU -- a 41-38 overtime win. TCU was ranked #15 at the time, but is now 3-2 and unranked with no quality wins. The Hogs other wins were by one over against La Tech (2-3), as well as wins over Texas State (2-2) and Alcorn (1-3). 

Arkansas does have an improved quarterback Austin Allen, who completes 68% of his passes and has a very decent 168 QB rating (see Jalen Hurts at 62%/139 QBR for comparison). He’s thrown  a dozen TD passes (to Hurts’s 7). Behind him he has a very capable running game led by Rawleigh Williams, who is number two in the conference in total yards with 559 and a 5.5 yards average carry.

Bama appears to have a slight edge in the running game despite rebuilding its O Line, on the legs of a freshman and a sophomore primarily. You have to combine Damien Harris’s 276 yards (8.4 a carry) and Jacobs’ 250 yards (7.3 a carry) to get a fair comparison--almost the same yardage as Williams but with an average of two more yards per carry. That matters in terms of an extra third down conversion or two leading to better time of possession and more red zone opportunities. And don’t forget the 276 yards of Hurts. We haven't seen this kind of QB play since perhaps Walter Lewis in 1983 when he ran for over 500 yards and averaged 4 yards a carry. 

Altogether, Bama averages 484 yards in total offense to the Razorback 443 average. Not a dramatic game changer stat, but perhaps enough to matter. The difference comes mostly from a 35 yards difference in passing and only about seven yards a game more rushing. Is that 40 yards enough for a score difference? Perhaps on a short field, yes.

Bama fans can feel better just looking at the scoring, where Bama leads the conference (when did that last happen?) by averaging 44 points a game (220 overall) versus the Hogs at 36 a game.

How does the kicking game compare? Both teams punt well in the mid 40s, but Bama leads in field goals with five over 30 yards to the Hogs only one over 30 yards. Bama returns kicks about an average of five more yards, which over the course of a game could mean a field goal difference especially when added to Bama’s 20 yard average on punt returns to the Hogs’ 10 yards. This stat matters in giving Bama at least one starting field position inside Hog territory. It could be a difference maker.

Last week Bama held Kentucky to 161 total yards, but I expect Arkansas to do better. Yet I do not expect them to reach their 443 average. I’m thinking 325 or so, as Bama has been allowing only 256 on average.

I expect to see a balanced attack as usual from Bama, though perhaps scoring slightly below average. The Hogs will not reach their average either.

Bottom line, a great game that’s within striking distance late into the third quarter, with the Tide slowly rising to take the W by 15.

RUNNING TALLY OF SEASON PREDICTIONS:
Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined this)
Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20 Actual: Bama 48. Ole Miss 43 (should have been 36 and a 12 point spread)

Prediction: Bama 59/Kent State 0. Actual: Bama 49- KS 0 (not bad)

Prediction: Bama 49/Kentucky 7 Actual: Bama 38-Kentucky 6

Prediction: Bama 36/Arkansas 21