The Alabama Crimson Tide takes on the University of Southern California Trojans

The Tide and Trojans will suit up on September 3, 2016 for the eighth time. Bama holds a 5-2 all-time edge, including a 24-3 win in the last outing in 1985. This year, Southern Cal will be led by Coach Clay Helton, who took over mid-year as interim and finished with an 8-6 record before being named head coach. In his first year as head coach, Helton will face off with Coach Nick Saban, who many believe may be the best football coach of all time, coming off a hard-fought national championship win in his last game.

If history is an indicator, Bama will win, though it may take three quarter to create separation. In the past four years Alabama has played openers against highly respected teams Michigan, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Wisconsin, winning by an average of 36-16. Add those two scores together and you get within one point of where the oddsmakers called the over/under, at 53, so the pattern is there. But, that said, this is a new year with two teams each replacing 11 or 12 starters and their quarterback, so stats and records don’t tell the entire story.

If I had to define the major factor in the game it would be challenge for Southern Cal to rebuild its defensive front seven against a team that loves to run the ball and is learning to love throwing it about as much. That’s not a good place to be against a well-balanced Alabama defense with great pass rushers, run stoppers and a proven secondary.

To win, and it is certainly possible, Southern Cal will need to take risks (go for it on fourth down, fake a punt, recover an onside kick), to create explosive plays, get a stellar game from Adoree Jackson (more on him later), and hope for fumbles. (In three weeks I will probably say about the same things in looking at Ole Miss.)

Adoree Jackson will be fun to watch. He’s the USC defensive back who sometimes has a few plays at wide receiver and returns kicks. Last year he scored a touchdown on an interception, on a punt return and a kick return. He’s fast and athletic, as the PAC 12 long jump champion. He’s a game changer and will need to give it all for Southern Cal to win. It will be fun to watch him.

At QB I make it a toss-up, though Bama has a bit of an advantage due to circumstances on the O-line. USC will start junior Max Browne who has sat behind Cody Kessler for years waiting his turn, but in 2014 some services ranked him as the top national QB and he was the Gatorade National Football Player of the year. Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett also carry top national high school rankings on their resumes. But Browne may have difficulty as his left tackle is out for the game, while the Bama QB will have his backside guarded by 29-game starter and former freshman All-American Cam Robinson.

When all position groups are compared, Bama gets a clear edge for three reasons: a huge and fast Bama defensive line against a rebuilding USC O-Line; a receiver group at Bama that in my opinion is unmatched in the nation; and Bama depth.

Let’s look at depth as an indicator. Last year, USC scored most of its points in the second quarter (168) and declined its scoring to 91 in the 4^th quarter—yet it gave up 99 in the fourth quarter. Perhaps a depth issue? Bama, on the other hand, scored about the exact same as USC in 2^nd quarter (166), but kept a high productivity in scoring with 138 in the fourth, while holding opponents to 80 in that quarter. This indicates depth and conditioning; which Bama appears to have carried into this season.

It’s hard to make certain comparisons like that until a season begins to develop and patters emerge, but some things are interesting to compare going back a year. Bama averaged 35 a game to the USC 34, but USC opponents scored 9 more on average at 26 versus the Bama D giving up only 15 a game. Bama outrushed its opponents 200 to 76, another stat I expect to be similar as I see the linebackers and D-line reloading.

On the D side, Bama gets an edge, with returning starters and regulars at every level of secondary (second team All-American Eddie Jackson), linebackers (Rueben Foster, leading tackler), and D-Line (Jonathan Allen, All-SEC Defensive End with 12 sacks).

But on to the thing I think will be the difference in this and many games this season: the Crimson Tide receivers. Let’s go down the list that I think is the best in the nation and the best in Bama history. Start with Calvin Ridley, of course, and his 89 catches for 1045 yards on a team with the Heisman running back. That’s the second most by a true freshman in FBS history, though it shouldn’t be such a surprise when he was the top-ranked receiver nationally by three ranking services coming out of high school. But amazingly, he was not even the starter until game three when Robert Foster went down. Foster was also the top-ranked receiver the year before by 247Sports and had 116 yards on 10 catches before going down in game three. He’s back.

Move down to Ardarius Stewart, another starter, who gave the team 63 catches—and an amazing 31 that went for first downs or touchdowns. While Ridley was the talk of the town, Stewart went about earning Offensive Player of the Week honors four times. He was no slouch coming out of high school either, with a ranking of #2 as a receiver and the Rivals #3 athlete.

Let’s throw in wild card Cam Sims, a big target at 6’5”, 203 pounds, and the #8 nationally ranked receiver by ESPN.

But who will replace Richard Mullaney, our workman receiver with 38 catches and five touchdowns to keep the double teams off the leading guys? My vote is for transfer Gehrig Dieter, a senior, who last year caught 94 passes for over a thousand yards and 10 TDs, after once being named a Parade All American in high school.

And on to a new crowd favorite, how can any secondary put wraps on those guys and not stretch themselves thin worrying about national championship MVP OJ Howard? No one should be that surprised, as Howard was the #1 ranked TE nationally by multiple services. Perhaps the coaches have more packages designed for Howard this year.

All in all, I see Bama pulling away as the game progresses despite a very good USC team. Final score: Bama 38/USC 20.