Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcat Football Analysis 2016

It’s Homecoming and a great time to be in Tuscaloosa, as the weather looks a bit better this weekend for the 6 p.m. kickoff against the Kentucky Wildcats. 

So what can we expect this week from The Tide?

First, a quick aside or two on the team. I’m happy this week about the return of Tony Brown. We can use this speedster in the secondary where we’ve been burned a few times. Even Calvin Ridley says Tony is faster. He’s also revered by his teammates for his special teams play. As a junior with a couple dozen games under his belt he can bring some stability to the defensive backfield and perhaps shore up the weakness I see in Averette, who gets picked on a lot. And my second best feeling comes from seeing running back Joshua Jacobs’ coming out party last weekend. I see now why he averaged over 245 yards a game in high school and ran for 2700 in a season in Oklahoma. We should note that this true freshman earned his playing time OVER BJ Emmons, who was the top-ranked back in the nation in high school last year (with 2400 yards for comparison). And we saw some of the hints of greatness from freshman Trevon Diggs last week, who was the number one athlete in the eastern half of the country last year. It was also nice to see Blake come in and again throw a touchdown pass. At some point this year we might need that, despite the continued progress of Jalen Hurts. I also predicted a big effort by Cam Sims and was not disappointed to see his production. We need him to contribute despite the wealth of talent at receiver. Let’s hope Damien’s injury and the others we saw heal quickly…and those guys are not needed this week.

On to the game. Kentucky runs the ball fairly well. Despite opening losses to Southern Miss (44-35) and Florida (45-7), they came back and evened their record to 2-2. A 62-42 win over NMSU was followed with a win of South Carolina, 17-10. And it was all on the ground last weekend. Of course, temper that with the fact that South Carolina only beat Vandy by 3 and lost to Mississippi State.

The regular Kentucky QB Drew Barker remains hurt. Stephen Johnston came into the New Mexico State game and threw for an impressive 300 yards and 3 TDs. But last week was only 11 for 19, 135, and one INT. Expect no better against Bama.

While Kentucky did have drives last week of 12 and 11 plays with a steady grinding ground game, that could be a problem this week as Bama only gives up 68 yards a game. If that running game goes away, Kentucky is doomed. And the Wildcats are at the bottom of the league in offensive production.

Another reason Kentucky could have a long day…Coach Mark Stoops is 0-23 when losing at the half. And the school is 0-39 when trailing at the half. Bama has had half-time leads most of the time and will be up by 21 this week.

To run through key stats that will matter, Bama gains about 84 more total yards than the Wildcats and has played a couple of good defenses. So expect that to be a much wider spread and Bama will exceed its 484 yard average. I’m guessing Kentucky will be around 275 or 300 total at most, and could be in the low 200s. Bama’s balanced attack (237 average in the air and 246 on the ground) should work again this week.

Interesting to watch: How will Stanley “Boom” Williams do as RB? He averages about 8 yards a carry (compare to the Tide’s Damien Harris at 8.6). He has ten 100-yard games, but this will not be one of them I predict.

Most of the Kentucky defense relies on a few guys. Look at this telling stat: five of their tacklers are ranked in the Top 15 in the conference in total tackles. The Tide has one Reuben Foster (29^TH) in THE TOP 50! That tells me those guys don’t have anyone behind them and they will have their tongues hanging out in the fourth quarter.

Look for Bama to do well on the ground, as Kentucky has allowed 200+ yards in 9 of the last 10 games (only 91 last week though). They are also weak on third down defense, giving up a difficult 58% of opponent attempts and ranking 127^th of 128 teams in the stat. (By the way, South Carolina must suck as they made only 3 of 13 last week against this team.

My prediction, Bama by 42.

RUNNING TALLY OF SEASON PREDICTIONS:
Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined this)
Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20 Actual: Bama 48. Ole Miss 43 (should have been 36 and a 12 point spread)

Prediction: Bama 59/Kent State 0. Actual: Bama 49- KS 0 (not bad)

Prediction: Bama 49/Kentucky 7