Alabama Crimson Tide versus Ole Miss Rebels 2016

When the 19^th ranked Ole Miss Rebels and #1 Crimson Tide line up Saturday at 2:30 in Oxford, there will be more than a few of us holding our breath. For Bama fans, it may not be so much fear of Chad Kelly’s arm paired with a group of good receivers or the stout Rebel defensive line as much as it is the simple fact that Ole Miss brings its swagger against the Tide and has for many years—not just the past two when they turned a flurry of turnovers into back-to-back wins over championship caliber Crimson and White teams.

Many folks will be talking about a mad Tide and revenge. In my view, revenge is a rarely effective motivation. Focus on a lofty goal of championships is the mindset needed, by winning one game at a time against whatever opponent the powers that be have scheduled. For Bama’s sake I hope that is how they approach this game. Ole Miss won the last games, and two years ago they came out and took it. So let them have those wins as great memories for their program and don’t look back. It's not about getting even, it's about this year.

This week, many of us will keep trying to remember that The Tide started slow this year two weeks in a row against decent teams, never really had the engine hitting on all cylinders, and still outscored those two teams (one ranked and one coming off a 12-2 Conference USA championship and bowl win) by a combined score of 90-16. The Tide is favored in Vegas by 10 or 11 this week, depending on when you made your bet. And that seems about right to me based on the Tide with a slight edge in defense, a great punter that sometimes becomes a weapon, and perhaps a tiny edge in receivers. Neither team seems to be able to run the ball consistently. Below are my thoughts on why those small differences add up to a win for Bama.

While Ole Miss lost its first game after giving up 36 unanswered points, I can’t get that fast start out of my head when they were up by 22 and looked like a top 5 team on both sides of the ball. And this week Ole Miss will have a matchup they like. A great defensive Rebel front against a rebuilding Tide line that has had little push when push comes to shove. Last week, I thought I would lose my voice screaming when on a third and one inside the 10 the Tide decided it needed to throw a pass. And not in an SEC game against LSU or Tennessee or Arkansas, but against Conference USA. Mercy me, what have we come to. And unfortunately, this will not be the week when we can expect to see that running game have a breakout. Too much speed, too well coached, with too many schemes on that Ole Miss side.

In trying to gauge the real Ole Miss, the Wofford game with its triple option coming early in the year and a week after the emotional loss at FSU doesn’t tell me anything at all.

So where are the clues to this week’s prognostication? While Ole Miss has a good D line, the folks behind them aren’t bringing the same experience and beef. If Jalen Hurts can keep his head and make the long throw, he will have some success. The QB comparison is quite interesting. Both teams pass for about the same (Bama with two QBs slightly averaging more yards in the air at 287 a game to 277 for Ole Miss). Interestingly, Bama’s average yardage is slightly more at 9.5 vs. 8. I was a bit surprised by that. Both starting QBs complete right at 62% of their throws, so again evenly matched.

The biggest difference that I see from the averages of production (and this is very risky to put much faith in as a trend this early in the season) may be the 63 yards a game more that Bama gains on the ground combined with an average punt of five more yards. That 75 or 80 yard difference over the course of a game could be two drives for points, say a touchdown and a long field goal. That could be the simple difference. If Bama has poor field position too often, that could negate this edge. Conversely, if starting field position is good for Bama then this 80 yards could result in two scores.

The unknowns will include the ability of Ole Miss to be ball hawks (ball sharks?) like last year when they got five turnovers, but I’ll call that three takeaways and two gifts. This year, Bama has only thrown one INT to Chad’s 4. 

In a running back comparison, which is sort of bitter to discuss considering how much I expected this team to continue last year’s punishing running game, we find that Damien Harris has 183 yards on  20 carries to Akeem Judd’s 108 on 19. Damien’s 9 yards average plays well against the 5.7 of Akeem, but unless the new Bama jet sweep and steady passing game loosen up that middle, I just don’t see it being the main factor. Unless of course the Tide can shut down Ole Miss running completely and get ahead to make Kelly air it out with a longer passing game. If he does, the wind shifts in Bama’s favor.

So let’s figure out the real differences. Running game: very slight edge to Bama. Passing game: even, though ArDarius Stewart with his 203 yards as leading receiver in the conference would appear to make a difference. But Ole Miss has lots of hands that can catch a ball. Overall scoring threat: slight edge to Bama averaging 45 vs. 36. Special teams: slight edge to Bama due to punting averaging about five more net yards. Coaching: in this case about even. Sack ability: even (both have 5).

Bama’s defense is highly ranked (still early I know) with national rankings in the top 20 in four categories of Total D (6^th), Rushing D (3^rd), Passing Efficiency  (17^th) and Scoring D (8^th).  Bama has given up one TD and three field goals for 16 points. Ole Miss has given up many scores totaling 58 points. Edge clearly to Bama based on depth and experience at all three levels of line, LB and secondary. The Reb defense seems well matched with the Tide in the front 7, while Bama has an edge with its back four. And that will be the difference maker.

This will be a game all the way. Bama fans, pray for sure hands. Two fumbles that fall into Rebel possession could be disastrous, as we have seen. I think both teams can hold the other below its average, but Bama will gradually stretch it out for a win. 

RUNNING TALLY OF SEASON PREDICTIONS:
Prediction: Bama 38/USC 20 Actual: Bama 52/USC 6 (who could have imagined this)
Prediction: Bama 42/WK 10 Actual: Bama 38/WK 10 (good week)

Prediction: Bama 34/Ole Miss 20